Music · resolved market

Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe38f146cb04e9078e5363626e1f97837edd994080d4e836d83d3af0824921262

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,553
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,553 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Music
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x22d3…5e3abacked No	5c	6,165$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.28	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked No	6c	3,397$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.82	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	19cpaid	+66.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed No	5c	1,189$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.59	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No	6c	880.48$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.05	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No	8c	737.81$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.74	128	35.9%46 W · 82 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No	14c	719.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.2	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No	3c	600$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcc5…0c52backed No	9c	535.01$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.7	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-4.8wins	-0.24per pick	39cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	11c	499.99$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.5	70	27.1%19 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No	12c	498.29$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.88	77	40.3%31 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed No	15c	359.41$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.51	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed No	6c	349.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No	5c	309.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	151	19.2%29 W · 122 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f0…cf6dbacked No	20c	278.95$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d0…c293backed No	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	14cpaid	+113.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No	10c	243$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e1e…49d9backed No	16c	242$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.66	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No	9c	200.89$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.95	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+2.6wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed No	14c	179$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.57	93	33.3%31 W · 62 L	+10.8wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	+76%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc2a3…1698backed No	16c	165$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No	8c	154.55$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed No	13c	153.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.89	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed No	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked No	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed No	16c	99.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	72	34.7%25 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	58c	34.14$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.34	229	27.9%64 W · 165 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event