TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,959 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a8f…d72ebacked Yes8c2,353$200 inLost-$2001338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc5…0c52backed Yes10c2,196$213 inLost-$213.221330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed Yes17c2,000$340 inLost-$340267.7%2 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-86.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes8c1,730$145 inLost-$145.298342.2%35 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes8c1,021$78 inLost-$78.323429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes6c737$42 inLost-$42.012817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e2…e964backed Yes5c595.82$32 inLost-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1479…487cbacked Yes4c540.62$20 inLost-$19.721330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08f4…7700backed Yes5c500.53$24 inLost-$24911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-85.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdca0…140ebacked Yes8c473.68$40 inLost-$401833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes3c458.06$16 inLost-$15.892450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes9c429.37$40 inLost-$40.323923.1%9 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44eb…c390backed Yes15c406.64$60 inLost-$59.91616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeccd…76ddbacked Yes8c332.73$25 inLost-$25825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa47c…09f2backed Yes20c276.94$54 inLost-$54.2850%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34a0…57f8backed Yes6c269.3$15 inLost-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No77c267$207 inWon+$60.0822927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c256.53$12 inLost-$11.744629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes5c247.62$12 inLost-$11.7310%0 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce59…0431backed Yes21c234.96$50 inLost-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes8c212.5$17 inLost-$17.3215119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed Yes9c211.22$18 inLost-$18771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07c7…0655backed Yes8c211$17 inLost-$17.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1afb…e524backed Yes23c200$46 inLost-$46425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes5c193.02$10 inLost-$10.324731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes8c160$13 inLost-$12.8633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc15c…da7abacked Yes11c123.05$14 inLost-$13.71540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7519…f47cbacked Yes8c122$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a65…50e1backed Yes21c117.37$25 inLost-$251464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+68.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1ef…b99bbacked Yes23c109.17$25 inLost-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost-$11.78234.1%28 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d8e…d191backed Yes17c80$14 inLost-$13.62634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed No80c68.96$55 inWon+$13.81346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ca…967dbacked Yes29c38.15$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.