Music · resolved market

Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a8aece01359558a27b07a3dda283621f391bc44cc3b7bc327cda601aa5208ce

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $118,807
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $122,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,807 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Music
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa8e0…1dd2backed No	2c	57,107$1,314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,313.82	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed No	3c	2,193$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.43	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No	3c	1,950$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.46	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe98…0befbacked No	2c	1,927$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44eb…c390backed No	2c	1,640$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.91	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No	1c	1,474$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	147	8.2%12 W · 135 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked No	2c	999.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	2c	943.33$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.76	462	9.7%45 W · 417 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked No	2c	843.77$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e8d…1be3backed No	2c	809$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4164…3b17backed No	2c	805.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34a0…57f8backed No	3c	759.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9257…ed5fbacked No	2c	748$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ca7…8410backed No	2c	714.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No	3c	681.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.51	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x037d…0d00backed No	2c	672.29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd03…ea96backed No	2c	638.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5946…027bbacked No	2c	624.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5fd…7133backed No	2c	617.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde74…e866backed No	3c	605.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23c4…f812backed No	2c	585.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1235…b6cbbacked No	2c	546.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda36…0a9cbacked No	3c	511.88$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.86	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc98e…e2ccbacked No	2c	510.01$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No	2c	509.54$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	68	0%0 W · 68 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93bb…2411backed No	3c	481.4$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30e7…d258backed No	5c	439.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7eb…7169backed No	3c	430$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd16e…6a23backed No	3c	403.28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x263e…2976backed No	3c	357.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	10cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.15per pick	29cpaid	+45.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event