Music · resolved market

Will Latvia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7e52e4b6cc9e50756f80083d5d0fc92e50714c8072119dd2b70d687027dbe98

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 17, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,173 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Music
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0552…ac6ebacked Yes	11c	1,535$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a0e…6ad8backed Yes	12c	847.81$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	36cpaid	+50.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2308…4dabbacked Yes	13c	480.75$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.19	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes	13c	467.25$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.01	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	63c	427.21$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.25	229	27.9%64 W · 165 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48cb…c2b1backed Yes	11c	362.79$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f4…7700backed Yes	39c	317$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.59	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d8e…d191backed Yes	11c	312.02$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	25cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes	7c	306.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	11c	300$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.04	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes	7c	285$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-2.9wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes	6c	284.48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.77	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ece…b2e7backed Yes	19c	267.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab7…99c7backed Yes	11c	260.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.67	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x810c…0a4fbacked Yes	13c	199.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x656a…f720backed Yes	10c	191.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4131…9afebacked Yes	11c	188.13$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda6e…af49backed Yes	14c	175$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	53cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes	12c	171.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.38	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bff…63e0backed Yes	12c	170$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.04	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	33c	133.32$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe73f…c247backed Yes	11c	133.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe082…2394backed Yes	11c	120$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.34per pick	26cpaid	+64.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes	11c	104.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	36	25%9 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-83.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x476a…2a22backed No	69c	25.07$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.89	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-27%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a3d…8322backed No	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.81	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	77cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Latvia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event