TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Armenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,189
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,189 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes9c1,287$112 inLost-$112.052755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba6…2f9dbacked Yes8c1,212$101 inLost-$100.81250%6 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xda93…f09cbacked Yes11c1,056$115 inLost-$115.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes6c1,000$57 inLost-$573923.1%9 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes7c975.31$72 inLost-$71.73348.5%16 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f63…c5d0backed Yes9c837.29$76 inLost-$76.15137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed Yes6c650$38 inLost-$37.6166.3%1 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick29cpaid-71.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2cdd…2916backed Yes8c500$39 inLost-$38.51225%3 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ed…6cdabacked Yes4c371.63$13 inLost-$13.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba6b…f1f5backed Yes5c364.02$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x073e…cf8bbacked Yes4c363.89$13 inLost-$13.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes6c333.33$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7050…b4fabacked Yes8c328.75$25 inLost-$252015%3 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725b…576dbacked Yes6c309.09$17 inLost-$171136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes9c251.49$24 inLost-$23.641910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes8c250.36$20 inLost-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Yes5c241$13 inLost-$12.823330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Yes5c213.6$11 inLost-$10.874643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4986…ae78backed Yes5c197.57$11 inLost-$10.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe73f…c247backed Yes10c180.9$18 inLost-$17.61911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4e…faefbacked Yes8c166.33$13 inLost-$13.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes8c150$13 inLost-$12.6310%0 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d8e…d191backed Yes11c132.26$15 inLost-$152634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c46…fcd6backed Yes12c98.85$12 inLost-$12.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f9…e5f0backed Yes14c98.73$13 inLost-$13.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No52c25.72$13 inWon+$12.329100%9 W · 0 L+4.7wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+126%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa47c…09f2backed Yes48c25.72$12 inLost-$12.3250%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.