Music · resolved market
Will Spain finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8976d1dde7342df94876bb69443333bbb9ae84559dd8afa277a4d19ed1269b42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 15c | 10,622$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.34 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 15c | 8,761$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.08 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…e866backed Yes | 14c | 4,324$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.09 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 2,564$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.79 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…edd3backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 14c | 900$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 14c | 650$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…dc66backed Yes | 13c | 541$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 9c | 532.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 29cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…3395backed Yes | 22c | 453.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 14c | 430.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0331…7271backed Yes | 20c | 428.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Yes | 8c | 383.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 14c | 377.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1999…fedbbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -82%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 78c | 294.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…4bacbacked Yes | 12c | 281.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…b4a7backed Yes | 13c | 261.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…b409backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…c8dcbacked Yes | 16c | 244.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 13c | 222$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 79c | 222$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 16c | 209.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…d191backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…5172backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 11c | 186.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…c5d0backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…487cbacked Yes | 17c | 177.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb64…4eb4backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…c8fcbacked Yes | 15c | 130.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…4679backed Yes | 19c | 110.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 15c | 107.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2d…cd1bbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 11c | 103.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…2322backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 18cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8e…8a65backed Yes | 24c | 87.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93e4…68a7backed Yes | 21c | 82.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…9b19backed Yes | 15c | 81.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73f…c247backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7575…d3dfbacked Yes | 23c | 58.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…1b96backed Yes | 19c | 52.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf43…533bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spain finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?this page
- Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Armenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Australia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Belgium finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Croatia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Cyprus finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Czechia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Georgia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Germany finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Ireland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Latvia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Lithuania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Luxembourg finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Montenegro finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Netherlands finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Serbia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Slovenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Switzerland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will United Kingdom finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.