TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Netherlands finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,794 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…1dd2backed No20c10,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,0001931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No15c5,858$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,979.055145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes8c3,700$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-75.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…1698backed No19c3,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4301618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked No22c1,967$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5303941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes77c1,627$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.238140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccc1…b2b3backed No20c1,493$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.141030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No16c1,254$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.354240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No16c1,220$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.484643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc011…6a60backed No18c1,118$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.752123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No23c690.6$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.414748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73cb…b0d0backed No15c545.85$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.15650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+307.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No17c499.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.995139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No19c468.49$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.97740.3%31 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed No20c436.59$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.213330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…c4ccbacked Yes70c426$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…f204backed No26c400$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2961361.5%8 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick30cpaid+71.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes77c395.71$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.317027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd9e…3723backed Yes77c390.53$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001225%3 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-55%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No21c380.09$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.6824732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d13…a018backed Yes79c333$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x246a…19b8backed Yes78c325.01$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.052330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-36.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No21c316.79$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.5212835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08bd…4bafbacked Yes80c297.6$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed No18c270.47$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.81540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+67.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecde…c846backed No14c268.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.045030%15 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No18c255.68$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.667345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x528f…f71abacked No18c255$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.65742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No15c250.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.936642.4%28 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed No20c225.4$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.295320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd470…783ebacked No17c220.73$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.472040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No15c199.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.545738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed No17c199.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.983030%9 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No20c190.91$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.8215119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x051d…6980backed No22c163.43$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e1e…49d9backed No21c163.27$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.271827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No16c150$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1264440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No16c140.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.863923.1%9 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef9f…425ebacked Yes78c128.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No15c119.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.015554.5%30 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No14c119.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.197343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes80c107.7$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.642450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed No15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa834…6ee3backed No18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+53.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No36c97.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.227139.4%28 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No23c95.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.316334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes70c90.37$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.14447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No19c87.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.463737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes78c78.37$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.131827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No19c75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No21c71.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.53842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3985…cfebbacked Yes80c62.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+56.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes76c56.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.94526.7%12 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+191.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed No27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.52733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes77c48.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.241315.4%2 W · 11 L-5.3wins-0.41per pick56cpaid-55.9%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes79c42.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.365238.5%20 W · 32 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd76…6c23backed Yes78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed Yes80c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd585…a5d4backed Yes79c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04e7…eeadbacked Yes80c28.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x296d…ed4dbacked Yes76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.