TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,358
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,358 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x325f…d8acbacked No54c2,955$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.624643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked No69c2,831$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.483941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes30c2,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4002524%6 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5be7…8fc6backed No67c1,679$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.87742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed No68c1,156$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.561250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2f9…eb40backed Yes32c860.41$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.592100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+150.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd35c…c2debacked No66c860$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed No14c849.98$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.493030%9 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes38c798.95$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.951338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Yes28c722.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.74650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+197.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes36c710.2$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.61573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes23c701.6$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.1522927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No72c684$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.446642.4%28 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6256…3c82backed Yes29c675$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes33c660$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.21533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No70c647.9$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.374240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No68c646.94$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.224748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffa…0ae6backed Yes34c645$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+62.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482b…34acbacked Yes32c645$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+124.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No67c593.94$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.915145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes32c587$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.783429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked No70c572.27$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes26c566$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.883935.9%14 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b2…296ebacked Yes36c555.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.561442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+208.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1952…c5c8backed Yes39c526.72$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed No71c500.1$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.244344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3205139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes37c500$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3152638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes33c475.68$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.093420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked No67c453.49$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No67c434.9$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.5112835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4406…4b19backed No66c406.24$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.433740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6281…53afbacked Yes61c396.16$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes43c349.99$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.448234.1%28 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No69c334.01$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.477740.3%31 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ccd…b2b5backed Yes29c325$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes33c316.32$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.42per pick29cpaid+265%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5bff…63e0backed Yes35c312.22$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.221241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes29c311.18$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.3850%4 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+184.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5006…b409backed Yes34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1982339.1%9 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick23cpaid+73.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x246a…19b8backed Yes32c284.97$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.042330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-36.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b97…e1b1backed No71c280$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3af8…5b25backed No71c280$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ed…5723backed No71c275$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24f2…f6c4backed Yes34c264.91$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+75.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf968…84bdbacked Yes34c250$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.54928.6%14 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e6d…3953backed Yes33c227.79$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.37633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd76…6c23backed Yes33c220$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1471145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes36c206.74$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.9114938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No54c205.14$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7424732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked No67c200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1344746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes30c200$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.69333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No68c199.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.497027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a0e…6ad8backed Yes40c198.9$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+50.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bef…bf3ebacked Yes26c190.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.43633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+446.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61e5…7bd5backed Yes34c190$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0336…d655backed Yes33c190$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+78.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecde…c846backed No66c171.61$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.875030%15 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa890…1c30backed Yes34c165$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No66c157.01$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.636943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa823…851fbacked Yes41c149.71$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.71040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3985…cfebbacked Yes49c147.51$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+56.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed Yes35c147.47$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.861346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No72c134.73$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.622755.6%15 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No70c131.57$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.573438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes28c130.87$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.116334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes63c130.48$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.64461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No65c130.31$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.247343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42e0…0578backed No67c129$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.09650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes31c125.04$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.96533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c79…7d41backed No71c125$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd3…cc49backed No70c125$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed Yes50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d4…69efbacked Yes36c110.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked No62c109.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.491625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffc6…411fbacked Yes28c106.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.183145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No55c102.22$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2214835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3596…6c81backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc62d…9dedbacked No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes28c99.13$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.965738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes40c97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.061827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa834…6ee3backed No18c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+53.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No66c84.27$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.625554.5%30 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No62c81.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.251844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes49c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.81258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+26.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed No65c79.6$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.564447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcca3…4e45backed Yes33c79.16$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb64…4eb4backed Yes32c78.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.131520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No70c75.69$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.326240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b8…9104backed No65c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7836…9560backed No65c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No67c70$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.693444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d6…2da7backed No66c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes35c69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.85633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes65c67.38$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.862540%10 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed No62c64.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403327.3%9 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5949…1ecbbacked Yes32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+119%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf8b…4fe9backed Yes33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes36c59.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.033923.1%9 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.