TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x964c…d1febacked No42c32,534$13,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,664.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3309…af98backed Yes58c32,534$18,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,664.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes47c3,285$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.792755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No59c2,453$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.582832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6835backed Yes44c2,400$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.311250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be7…8fc6backed No59c2,367$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes56c2,232$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.012615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-40.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No48c1,433$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.856642.4%28 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No46c1,220$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.5614835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No32c1,009$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.8622927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99e8…be45backed Yes54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceca…3a75backed No46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Yes57c984.71$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.25650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+197.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7a2…f3b9backed Yes56c965$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked Yes60c916.01$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.91266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+48.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No43c910.32$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.554748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No40c898.16$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.744240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No51c843.08$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.6212835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c13…7ab3backed No69c839.17$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4024…35ccbacked No44c830$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No53c816.92$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.212015%3 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-77.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6c16…e536backed No45c698.42$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed No52c689.99$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.93030%9 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e7a…e5d7backed No46c685$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed51…eb3bbacked No52c675.79$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes78c651.55$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.645139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x242b…de00backed No46c650.58$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.811241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes48c644.73$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.677027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes60c637.32$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.294731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd9e…3723backed Yes59c611.41$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.411225%3 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-55%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked No62c602.17$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.22638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes55c600$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No54c599.89$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.863429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes67c540.03$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.033836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No42c529.87$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.977345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No35c520.59$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.015145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9535…a161backed Yes58c503.11$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c8e…0824backed Yes54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27c1…f4acbacked No38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1905335.8%19 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No50c485.23$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.451844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes54c478.57$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.572035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fee…341dbacked Yes42c470.41$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes52c457.73$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.37385.3%2 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-91.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0953…b819backed Yes41c454.14$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.491758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x002c…b7fbbacked Yes48c444.89$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+69.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes47c420$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No49c410.79$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.924643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e7…b0f7backed No51c393.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce4c…a1fcbacked Yes52c383.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.17837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes49c372.41$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.38560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed Yes59c372.32$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.37267.7%2 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-86.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes47c355.25$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.971850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No48c353.1$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3624732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf886…3066backed Yes46c350$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfca…96bbbacked Yes51c340.53$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.53580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+49.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd470…783ebacked No42c337.86$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.062040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No46c329.79$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.013923.1%9 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed No40c303.35$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Yes41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1772100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d1…6a06backed Yes62c299.87$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa995…debebacked Yes54c280$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes54c270$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.554461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes55c252.93$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11416334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x107c…5f0fbacked Yes45c249.99$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+69.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No40c248.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.717740.3%31 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No45c242.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.833444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e0…0578backed No54c238.9$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.01650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24f2…f6c4backed Yes43c236.58$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+75.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe966…c1c2backed No53c229.34$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.41030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3aff…e200backed Yes44c228.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.91862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes49c214$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.552817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes49c210$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.85046%23 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9df…3fcdbacked Yes49c203.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No51c200.32$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.167723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06af…3741backed Yes69c200$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+47.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Yes51c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes52c200$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.54946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb9dd…9befbacked Yes49c199.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick25cpaid+95.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cdc…8f16backed Yes52c190.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.571070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc316…a8e3backed Yes54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked No57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860f…422ebacked No58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes56c165$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.052450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0f…40f9backed Yes49c164.45$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No35c158.21$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7414938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes65c156$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.041553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1999…fedbbacked Yes52c155.79$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.22416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e66…d8dbbacked No46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed No39c146.82$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.511850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b7…9c41backed Yes54c145$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked Yes45c144.9$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+97.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5762…f95fbacked Yes54c138.93$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No38c130$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8319939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe06…a507backed Yes48c126.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4406…4b19backed No51c115.9$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.113740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No60c114$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.515119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed No37c113.2$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.881931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e0…19b9backed Yes45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.114259.5%25 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+26.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.