TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2c13…7ab3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+74.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Warriors vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+37%+$369.93
Pistons vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+64%+$1,279.78
Raptors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$46.15
Hawks vs. Netsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Wizards vs. Pistonsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$307.14
Hornets vs. Heatbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+301.4%+$271.23
Pistons vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+49.3%+$246.27
Cavaliers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$63.11
Knicks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+32.6%+$30.6
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+104.1%+$52.04
Bucks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Team Chuck win the 2025 NBA All Star Game Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST-100%-$167
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,262Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+451.5%+$5,700.2
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,232.89
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$4,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,100
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$3,230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+253.4%+$8,184.29
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,559Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,559.33
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$428
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,899Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+178.8%+$3,396.28
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$461Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$460.8
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+126.7%+$585.15
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+61.9%+$83.62
All 12 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+115.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Devils vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+224.5%+$224.52
Blackhawks vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+75.4%+$17.35
Jets vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+47.1%+$47.06
All 3 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+49.2%+$108.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
White Sox vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+43%+$429.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana dip to $140 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$104
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$6,106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,105.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$583Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$582.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.41
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.