Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90d1ed598fb389d174c24d96e7ec82085f0d3cda497dc1bf797e4cb9a6553e75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof MSM, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $235,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5314…910cbacked MSM | 1c | 22,568$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.63 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed MSM | 2c | 15,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked MSM | 2c | 10,452$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed MSM | 1c | 9,502$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.59 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed MSM | 2c | 7,897$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked MSM | 1c | 7,741$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -77%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed MSM | 2c | 5,142$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed MSM | 2c | 5,070$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked MSM | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 2.4%2 W · 80 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MSM | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked MSM | 2c | 4,678$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff5…6063backed MSM | 2c | 4,575$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed MSM | 2c | 4,059$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…a1e9backed MSM | 2c | 3,700$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed MSM | 2c | 3,640$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830d…3f0ebacked MSM | 2c | 3,088$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed MSM | 1c | 3,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed MSM | 2c | 2,555$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked MSM | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed MSM | 2c | 2,389$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed MSM | 1c | 2,006$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…d310backed MSM | 3c | 1,865$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed MSM | 1c | 1,471$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad93…c030backed MSM | 2c | 1,113$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed MSM | 1c | 1,111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 62cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked MSM | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed MSM | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed MSM | 2c | 999.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c17…d5a1backed MSM | 2c | 930.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…5d81backed MSM | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…ca79backed MSM | 2c | 899.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6a84backed MSM | 2c | 714$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked MSM | 2c | 701$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed MSM | 2c | 641.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…7ab3backed MSM | 2c | 631.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…7a95backed MSM | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…d392backed MSM | 2c | 459.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.