Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cd2fedef1235ef41e565addf91eb96466c3a2678d6cd75654feefada82a52d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $869,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $532,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $869,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 4c | 100,067$3,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,731.92 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 80,230$7,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,995.73 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 28c | 26,305$7,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,464.05 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 0c | 13,076$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 12,754$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.59 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 2c | 11,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 23c | 9,088$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.37 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 20c | 8,529$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.72 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 11c | 8,453$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.48 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 6c | 8,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 12c | 7,980$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.02 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 6c | 7,518$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.14 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 4c | 7,390$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.21 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 2c | 7,359$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.89 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 25c | 7,272$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.23 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 6c | 6,756$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.12 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 21c | 6,245$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 0c | 5,469$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 9c | 5,294$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.05 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 11c | 4,981$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.4 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 13c | 4,830$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.61 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 9c | 4,805$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.55 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 4,683$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.56 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 4,419$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 17c | 4,217$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.85 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 14c | 3,800$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.12 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…0810backed Yes | 12c | 3,579$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 3,500$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 75c | 3,420$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.78 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 7c | 3,375$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.81 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked No | 73c | 3,361$2,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.36 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 3,359$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.61 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 3,151$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.16 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 13c | 2,980$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.54 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 1c | 2,912$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed Yes | 19c | 2,887$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…3bd3backed Yes | 15c | 2,772$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 78c | 2,760$2,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.46 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 15c | 2,671$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.83 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,596$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.85 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6abf…c6cebacked Yes | 2c | 2,561$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked Yes | 18c | 2,521$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.57 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,434$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.88 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 11c | 2,396$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.59 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked Yes | 26c | 2,346$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 13c | 2,122$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.36 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…980bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,045$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,010$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.2 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 7c | 1,975$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.1 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 6c | 1,948$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,912$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.15 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 15c | 1,911$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.7 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,760$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,748$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 24c | 1,734$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 1,710$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,649$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.24 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 6c | 1,575$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 18c | 1,525$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.06 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 23c | 1,503$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.14 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 19c | 1,450$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.73 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 21c | 1,442$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.33 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 7c | 1,400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,361$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.33 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 14c | 1,261$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.48 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ea…c102backed Yes | 25c | 1,246$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,204$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.93 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 74c | 1,181$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.39 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,175$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ef…c25dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,155$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 5c | 1,130$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 27c | 1,124$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.01 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,078$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.5 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 26c | 1,066$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.42 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…7ab3backed Yes | 1c | 1,055$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…a1e0backed Yes | 20c | 1,049$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,013$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.6 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 9c | 999.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…bbb7backed Yes | 16c | 999.88$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 23c | 973.59$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.88 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 15c | 946.06$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…b185backed No | 79c | 932.8$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c9…5a03backed Yes | 38c | 931.46$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 9c | 931.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 6c | 900.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…8018backed Yes | 3c | 894.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 8c | 891.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 5c | 869.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 72c | 853.99$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.26 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 79c | 847.51$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.05 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 13c | 842.64$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…2526backed No | 78c | 822.86$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.78 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 12c | 816.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 80c | 814.7$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.