Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64ebe12fe7ba69337894d55215b42e716c16a4cd2a791bc22d25f883ed41e79e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $300,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $300,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 17,004$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.68 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 3c | 7,858$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.9 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 9c | 4,835$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.21 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 4,619$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 1c | 3,400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 3,389$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.64 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee85…7777backed Yes | 0c | 3,141$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 7c | 2,935$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,923$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.7 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee9…6cc6backed Yes | 8c | 2,897$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 14c | 2,786$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.09 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 10c | 2,604$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.34 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 10c | 2,466$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.72 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,352$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 7c | 1,945$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 1,800$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 1,663$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.42 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 13c | 1,605$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.66 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 7c | 1,600$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 6c | 1,561$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.46 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 14c | 1,438$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…543fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,424$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 1c | 1,357$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,174$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,146$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 14c | 1,123$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…c5a1backed Yes | 13c | 1,100$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,091$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed Yes | 16c | 1,044$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.47 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…6998backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 11c | 999.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 10c | 999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 11c | 939.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…8887backed Yes | 15c | 900.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 8c | 888$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…466fbacked Yes | 8c | 875$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 3c | 866.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…3d0fbacked Yes | 10c | 839.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes | 6c | 829.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 801.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 11c | 800.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 6c | 749.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 9c | 724.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 7c | 714.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 9c | 685.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…a126backed Yes | 5c | 669.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 7c | 654.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 13c | 646.21$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 16c | 638.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 8c | 617.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 15c | 617$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 11c | 550$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…010dbacked Yes | 14c | 531.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e7…0af7backed Yes | 10c | 513.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 14c | 512.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…1aefbacked Yes | 15c | 510$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…735fbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc5…afe2backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 494.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 460$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 7c | 444$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…fd85backed Yes | 8c | 432.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…0199backed Yes | 6c | 420$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…d1fdbacked Yes | 5c | 394.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…c821backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 15c | 339.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078a…d3edbacked Yes | 11c | 336.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 11c | 320.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 6c | 300.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 15c | 299.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376f…b642backed Yes | 9c | 261.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 7c | 260$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Yes | 4c | 259.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…1399backed Yes | 6c | 236$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded0…4319backed Yes | 5c | 230.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 7c | 225.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 16c | 223.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 10c | 214.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 8c | 207.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d20…7ec7backed Yes | 17c | 202.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.