Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x753ce422f9c460b3c63966369c76605ac3be7caeaccb8e98bc075e821a508dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $838,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $487,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $838,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 74,196$3,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,670.93 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 25,647$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.96 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 11c | 24,004$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.05 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 13c | 20,000$2,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 7c | 14,534$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.2 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 10c | 13,882$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.08 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…42c1backed Yes | 0c | 11,700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 11,495$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.33 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 15c | 11,431$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.12 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…1996backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked Yes | 15c | 7,036$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.43 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…ef0ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,941$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 10c | 6,850$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.57 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 6,827$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.54 | 852 | 16.4%140 W · 712 L | +24.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 0c | 6,750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,616$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f5…84f2backed Yes | 2c | 6,460$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 7c | 6,402$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 6c | 6,359$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.36 | 541 | 17.2%93 W · 448 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 2c | 6,314$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 4c | 6,055$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.53 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 3c | 5,598$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 695 | 15.7%109 W · 586 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 4c | 5,395$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.73 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 11c | 4,965$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.36 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…b570backed Yes | 19c | 4,871$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +157.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 11c | 4,716$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 6c | 4,700$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.3 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…130ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,687$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 4,344$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 14c | 3,752$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.69 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 7c | 3,733$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.63 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 16c | 3,613$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.61 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 9c | 3,557$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.45 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 12c | 3,520$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.44 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,359$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 2,181 | 3.9%85 W · 2,096 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 19c | 2,993$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.71 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 2,951$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 19c | 2,751$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…7788backed Yes | 3c | 2,732$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,707$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.88 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa285…98e8backed Yes | 4c | 2,599$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcd…2edcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,562$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,229$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…4021backed Yes | 10c | 2,228$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…91debacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes | 5c | 2,183$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 10c | 2,117$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 2,106$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca9e…7f44backed Yes | 11c | 2,100$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 4c | 2,087$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.98 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…a1e0backed Yes | 4c | 1,983$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,969$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 12c | 1,968$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.78 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 8c | 1,902$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.39 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 3c | 1,885$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 1c | 1,857$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 15c | 1,833$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.11 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 2c | 1,749$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965e…0062backed Yes | 3c | 1,703$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 14c | 1,674$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…61ccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,659$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 1,617$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 5c | 1,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 10c | 1,583$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.7 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 16c | 1,560$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.85 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d7…def8backed Yes | 10c | 1,556$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8574…54babacked Yes | 3c | 1,515$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…ae5cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,491$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 10c | 1,443$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.02 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…48abbacked Yes | 3c | 1,441$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971b…ec79backed Yes | 3c | 1,417$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,395$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,390$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 167 | 7.8%13 W · 154 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…4cd6backed Yes | 3c | 1,324$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 8c | 1,300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 525 | 9.9%52 W · 473 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 9c | 1,269$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.83 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e3…82cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,258$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,201$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,131$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…1c86backed Yes | 1c | 1,122$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…670cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,116$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…d6e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,116$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 4c | 1,053$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee85…7777backed Yes | 2c | 1,011$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…3dd4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2eb…95d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 15c | 999.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 977.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 11c | 945.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 147 | 15.6%23 W · 124 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 4c | 920$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…4272backed Yes | 5c | 919.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 3c | 905.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.