Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 28 - March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9423b8a27633fe0da4f2a2938107ec9194ac80aa74616f1deb6c83722c6fc90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 49,019$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 8,361$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.44 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 3c | 7,189$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.73 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 6,730$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…c63fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,538$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 4,530$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…6dc0backed Yes | 1c | 2,910$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,869$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc5…afe2backed Yes | 1c | 2,798$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 1c | 2,250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…6998backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…c5a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,719$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,608$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 2c | 1,355$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…ba8abacked Yes | 1c | 1,268$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -49%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,112$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…8887backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 3c | 764.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…b0d2backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 4c | 310.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 28 - March 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.