Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3da763f6b6407770cc1d0c34e92e3b7e6b293ccbeecce6534c321083751a894a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $506,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $489,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $506,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 497 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 39c | 24,391$9,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,822.64 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 23c | 10,003$2,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,657.8 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 20c | 9,722$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,740.06 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 11c | 9,020$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.97 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 59c | 8,914$5,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,627.77 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 54c | 8,787$4,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,029.95 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 30c | 8,441$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,930.3 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d6d5backed No | 0c | 6,070$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 32c | 5,833$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.59 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 42c | 5,266$2,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056.39 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 38c | 5,176$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200.93 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 39c | 4,870$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,971.08 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 63c | 4,821$3,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.39 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 50c | 4,802$2,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,385.93 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…24ebbacked Yes | 70c | 4,725$3,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 66c | 4,108$2,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,716.37 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 19c | 4,024$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,241.8 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 29c | 3,400$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.7 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 46c | 3,261$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.81 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…b570backed Yes | 10c | 2,724$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,464.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +157.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 29c | 2,476$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.16 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 27c | 2,448$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.14 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 24c | 2,437$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.6 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 15c | 2,354$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.12 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 41c | 2,331$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.84 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 46c | 2,281$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.66 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 19c | 2,137$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.19 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 52c | 2,060$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.22 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 13c | 2,012$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.6 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.93 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 13c | 1,788$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.52 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 15c | 1,756$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.98 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked No | 1c | 1,737$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 12c | 1,729$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.74 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8b…224bbacked No | 22c | 1,719$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 75c | 1,663$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.99 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ea…c102backed Yes | 30c | 1,525$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.48 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…2610backed Yes | 63c | 1,500$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 39c | 1,500$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 17c | 1,470$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.86 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 64c | 1,435$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.12 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,435$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.24 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…73e3backed Yes | 20c | 1,416$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.8 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 71c | 1,400$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.66 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,380$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.81 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 19c | 1,288$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.49 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 15c | 1,267$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.52 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 16c | 1,180$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.39 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 24c | 1,166$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.94 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 55c | 1,138$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.9 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…3bd3backed Yes | 13c | 1,095$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,085$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.93 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 14c | 1,002$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.34 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d7…def8backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 34c | 961.16$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.43 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 30c | 945.85$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.12 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 65c | 924.49$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.49 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 19c | 923.5$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.21 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 74c | 912.78$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes | 22c | 902.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.94 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078a…d3edbacked Yes | 74c | 902.84$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.02 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…c821backed Yes | 33c | 861.09$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.09 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 23c | 859.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.34 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 21c | 852.97$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.97 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 30c | 848.74$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.41 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 27c | 845.01$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.25 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb303…205bbacked Yes | 24c | 840.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.94 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…466fbacked Yes | 78c | 830.26$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 70c | 821.47$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 41c | 820$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked No | 43c | 794.99$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 13c | 748.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.17 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 49c | 746.27$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.03 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 725.03$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.09 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 11c | 723$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.93 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…c5a1backed Yes | 10c | 722.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.22 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 27c | 700$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 51c | 692.47$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.02 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 45c | 692.34$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 9c | 676.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.18 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…5d19backed Yes | 14c | 667$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.96 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…fc5fbacked Yes | 73c | 657.54$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…e86fbacked Yes | 79c | 652.07$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.82 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 641.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.68 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…5f70backed Yes | 15c | 640.53$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes | 22c | 640.25$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…735fbacked Yes | 31c | 628.88$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 14c | 625.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.54 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…0139backed No | 80c | 625$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06e…f7c2backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 23c | 623.01$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.01 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ef…c25dbacked Yes | 18c | 615.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.39 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 21c | 602.14$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 598.96$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.63 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…a1e0backed Yes | 28c | 597.17$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.