TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd60c…0139

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Commodities, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 55 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT2365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+126.1%+$52.95
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+57.7%+$36.37
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.97
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$31
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$340.16
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Israel strikes Iranian oil in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+25%+$10
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+31.2%+$47.27
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+104.1%+$104.08
Iran strike on Israel before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+25%+$20
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+49.3%+$33
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$147.15
Israel military action against Yemen before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
Israel military action against Iraq before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$97.8
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$31.25
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$35.5
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+52.8%+$16.73
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+203%+$33.5
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
Will Israel target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$22
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT+354.5%+$40.77
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT+61.3%+$18.39
All 23 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$207
Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$6
Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+180.6%+$126.43
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+174%+$127
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,426Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+34.8%+$495.9
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$16.33
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+26.9%+$10.5
Trump formally nominates Matt Gaetz for AG?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+27.3%+$10.63
Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+41.2%+$17.5
Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+26.6%+$21
All 12 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2025, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pershing Square IPO in 2024? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+32.5%+$65.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+30.7%+$23.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.