TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,886,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,850,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,886,668 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 710 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e9a…8d22backed No2c993,174$20,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,619.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…740fbacked No2c693,130$12,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,902.65156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-91.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed No1c363,803$4,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,932.51812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb620…dd7abacked No1c204,577$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,692.931241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed No2c200,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…5333backed No2c157,656$3,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,432.48137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No1c151,860$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.51229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No0c151,309$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.72600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfe8…0212backed No3c142,018$3,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,939.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85ed…3d0fbacked No3c116,819$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,948.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f6…460bbacked No0c105,260$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.52333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked No0c100,826$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.311711.8%2 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+91.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d4e…d786backed No1c96,064$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.051225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc429…700fbacked No2c86,932$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a4c…54e7backed No3c84,242$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.9670%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1f5…1757backed No2c80,572$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7e4…1009backed No1c80,388$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.171136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked No3c76,831$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.882240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc741…5252backed No1c76,300$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f3…5e16backed No3c61,559$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8315…e656backed No2c60,890$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5335…0b0fbacked No1c58,407$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.272516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f48…0490backed No1c50,098$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0677…1477backed No3c46,332$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ca…cba9backed No3c44,666$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x095f…765dbacked No3c43,307$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae11…2947backed No1c40,579$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbceb…bd96backed No2c40,136$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8f2…d296backed No2c39,891$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x334d…9932backed No2c38,037$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f6…bf2abacked No2c35,744$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae5c…53ddbacked No0c35,200$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed No2c34,114$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.02128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked No0c33,970$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.641520%3 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c36…52b9backed No3c33,339$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc5…61fdbacked Yes28c33,146$9,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,716.551136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid-17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed No1c31,968$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.831625%4 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb40…7fa0backed No3c31,414$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c47…174bbacked No3c31,362$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-79.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68e2…106abacked No1c31,236$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb2…3e05backed No2c31,177$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.832825%7 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ab…d123backed No1c31,035$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4499…abb1backed No8c31,021$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,481.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc08b…d0f2backed No1c30,902$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x025e…0420backed No14c30,514$4,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,27550%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9422…cee5backed No9c29,538$2,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba4f…564fbacked No0c28,334$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4527…395abacked No1c28,170$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe64f…44a5backed Yes15c27,802$4,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,555.331225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecdf…6c07backed No29c27,566$8,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,060.69425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-65%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea6f…aa67backed No2c26,830$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.29425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed No1c26,687$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.05120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes65c26,583$17,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,316.9926423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d09…1714backed No2c26,229$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd2…01c8backed No1c25,619$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81b4…4161backed No3c25,432$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed No4c24,726$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed No3c24,093$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.174634.8%16 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+104.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe225…ea9bbacked No0c24,064$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…21e6backed No10c23,824$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,368.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fde…b890backed No1c23,545$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No1c23,425$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.213312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f57…9fb9backed No1c23,375$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46af…febfbacked No2c23,114$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes38c23,069$8,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,332.2216743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No0c22,735$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.783943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed No2c22,500$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.843625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2013…0091backed No7c22,035$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.34812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c3f…ff4bbacked No3c21,429$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.1160%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed No3c21,391$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed No4c20,093$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.912437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2216…4accbacked No1c19,514$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.391010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-86.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15f6…19d5backed No0c19,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed No1c19,318$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca90…3094backed No0c18,854$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked No1c18,818$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x944a…a9adbacked No1c18,700$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75a5…a5bfbacked No8c18,665$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.241566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4422…48c9backed No1c18,345$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2621…af21backed No2c17,808$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…c02dbacked No2c17,474$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked No1c17,306$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ce…b599backed No1c16,817$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.684418.2%8 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa024…71babacked No2c16,444$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.68850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce68…8c13backed No2c16,282$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-49.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3c…3daabacked No24c15,540$3,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,791.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54d7…7d5bbacked No4c15,522$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed No1c15,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc792…0778backed No2c14,632$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed No17c14,610$2,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,534.042821.4%6 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa764…31edbacked No4c14,517$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.97333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a28…3ca9backed No61c14,464$8,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,866.112050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed Yes78c14,297$11,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,107.47683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+101%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40e3…2433backed No1c14,192$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.18540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ee…d947backed No7c14,086$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.121816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3487…87fcbacked No3c13,983$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ab…7f03backed No1c13,977$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31c…c1c3backed No2c13,966$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.4520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7658…85e9backed No4c13,793$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbee9…7fd6backed No1c13,592$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.