TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe9ee…d947

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: UFC, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 53 out of 100; worst NFL at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$600.19
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$999Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$999.43
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$206.22
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$786Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+56.9%+$447.19
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,036Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,036.18
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$37,729Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$37,729.3
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$441Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$441.38
Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$27
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$45.46
Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$50.5
Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$39.37
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$255.06
Israel military action against Iraq by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$140.4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$104,957Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+55.1%+$57,861.02
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,140
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$985Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$985.12
Iran strike on Israel today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$121.38
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2024, EDT+56.3%+$13.74
All 18 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2024, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$69.11
Will 'Smile 2' gross $24-27m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$26
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,049.51
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross more than $19m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,234Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT+44.7%+$550.84
Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$6,849Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+35.8%+$2,452.95
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,404Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+70.1%+$984.41
Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$352.66
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,149.9
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$208.62
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-82.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jets vs. Steelersbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,366Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,366.06
Raiders vs. Ramsbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,536Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,535.76
Bengals vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,546Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,546.36
Will the Cowboys and Lions combine for 53 or more points?backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,550
Commanders vs. Ravensbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$150.18
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,106Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,105.82
Saints vs. Chiefsbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$131.1
Cowboys vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$551.69
Ravens vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$225.83
Jets vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,321Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT+75.4%+$2,505.35
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+43%+$84.88
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,932Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$1,931.63
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R Housebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$6,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$6,699.97
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,528Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$1,528.06
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$237.76
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$69.27
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,166Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$1,165.59
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$465Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$465
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$123.05
All 9 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2024, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+112.8%+$318.43
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$500
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bronny score in his next game?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$108.56
Will Bronny James score a point tonight?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT+81.8%+$81.49
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$209.3
KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$676Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$675.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Royval vs. Tairabacked Royval · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT+233.3%+$175
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$671Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+54.6%+$366.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$11.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$23.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Conservatives win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$74.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$887Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$886.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 19, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,981Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,980.55
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.