Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50f2f68bdbb073f682c429cddaaee7f1685d6df1f04d66becf270c56fb5ee42c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 4c | 6,647$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.74 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 6c | 3,032$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.95 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 1c | 1,764$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes | 7c | 1,628$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 10c | 1,582$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 1,240$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,233$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,094$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…7df8backed Yes | 6c | 999.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…29cdbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 9c | 680$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a36dbacked Yes | 7c | 673.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…2bb4backed Yes | 2c | 650$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Yes | 6c | 605.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 591.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 8c | 480.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 5c | 429.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…9352backed Yes | 8c | 382.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…e4d5backed Yes | 8c | 374.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 7c | 350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 6c | 290$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…84e8backed Yes | 7c | 257.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…2dcebacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…effcbacked Yes | 8c | 245$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 10c | 219.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4987…804bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…1a6fbacked Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…aecabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday?this page
- No Israel strike on Iran by Sunday?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Friday?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Monday?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.