TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

No Israel strike on Iran by Sunday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$136,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,687

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cf3…87b3backed No8c32,399$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,690.89815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked No51c17,156$8,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,816.53036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No12c12,516$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.855121.6%11 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb259…fcf0backed No16c11,191$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb21c…e00cbacked Yes53c8,976$4,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,218.72966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+68%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c3aabacked Yes41c2,439$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.013100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+695.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a20…101cbacked Yes2c2,250$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,205966.7%6 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.56per pick10cpaid+974.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xece1…2b04backed No53c2,177$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No13c2,117$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.8826423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked Yes63c2,000$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.08966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5597…2e4bbacked No33c1,879$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes80c1,469$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.952755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes45c1,113$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6161546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No12c1,106$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.9377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No1c1,039$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9113033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked Yes77c652.65$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.651040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No31c600$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1854922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed Yes42c515.68$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.682821.4%6 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked No9c463$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8216832.1%54 W · 114 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes75c448.02$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6631649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed Yes77c424.22$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.382524%6 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed No49c415$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Yes63c400.97$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.746540%26 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No14c400.54$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.243212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes64c391$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.767558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6c9…bb9ebacked No27c389$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.031250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02cb…ae38backed Yes56c361.58$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.11747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5680…aecabacked No17c345.49$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed No14c294.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.974544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee4…c6fdbacked No40c293.08$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No24c267.58$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes54c261.35$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.892725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb139…effcbacked Yes59c245$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.451827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No28c236.92$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.328515.3%13 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb8…7c0fbacked Yes57c230.85$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.381050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No27c227.95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No25c222$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.551138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40bb…72bebacked Yes63c158.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.62176.2%16 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+29.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8194…ed51backed No27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2fd…7a01backed Yes62c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48a7…75bdbacked Yes75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb9…087cbacked Yes62c129.34$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.344100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a66…1c60backed Yes55c126.71$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes45c121.55$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.637247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Yes62c112.08$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.043540%14 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbba…7e88backed Yes64c105.55$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfd2…826bbacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+70.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286637.9%25 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xada8…a347backed No36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes60c94.39$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.762528%7 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No33c91.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No56c90.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.125354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9075…a22bbacked Yes58c85$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+61.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b5…a6b5backed Yes51c82$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.181030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6447…862ebacked No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.46229%18 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd025…9ab0backed Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2261…ddecbacked Yes71c77.88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.65757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes45c77.78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.783348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2efe…0a50backed Yes65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.92955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5982…fa1ebacked Yes52c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.41457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…9816backed Yes40c62.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.41553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a53…0d24backed Yes65c61.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.28977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.27855.1%43 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed Yes74c58.83$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.112951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb9…1a6fbacked Yes46c54.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed Yes70c54.92$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.482454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3683…68dbbacked Yes41c53.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa92a…894cbacked Yes77c51.49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.043100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fa2…0204backed Yes43c45.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.191163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+87.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe21d…f215backed Yes64c44.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb53c…07c4backed Yes45c43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+107.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e71…81d1backed Yes75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd2c8…770dbacked No44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b9f…49aabacked Yes65c38.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes43c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.958727.6%24 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb84…a22cbacked Yes74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf93…2027backed Yes60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes61c32.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.91944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef8…1d13backed No63c31.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e1…d82cbacked Yes58c31.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e1…778fbacked Yes60c27.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x838c…5252backed Yes56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.791735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa354…6518backed Yes77c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x189d…3d82backed Yes59c25.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+197.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0da9…1dd2backed Yes77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes68c24.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.865955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+28.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes75c24.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.982040%8 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0313…67dbbacked No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37142.3%30 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb0…edf5backed Yes77c19.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…7644backed Yes61c18.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.13850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcac3…e8a0backed Yes78c18.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes64c17.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.224639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.