Middle East · resolved market
No Israel strike on Iran by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b4d064aab0d7e89afbd9dc9622e6f82ae1c38bd0ae10f788aac9f64f7234809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 8c | 32,399$2,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690.8 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked No | 51c | 17,156$8,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,816.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 12c | 12,516$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.85 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…fcf0backed No | 16c | 11,191$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…e00cbacked Yes | 53c | 8,976$4,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,218.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +68%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c3aabacked Yes | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +695.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +974.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…2b04backed No | 53c | 2,177$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 13c | 2,117$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.88 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Yes | 63c | 2,000$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…2e4bbacked No | 33c | 1,879$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 80c | 1,469$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.95 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 45c | 1,113$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 1,106$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 1c | 1,039$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5861…66efbacked Yes | 77c | 652.65$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 31c | 600$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 42c | 515.68$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.68 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 9c | 463$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 75c | 448.02$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 77c | 424.22$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 49c | 415$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 63c | 400.97$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 14c | 400.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 64c | 391$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked No | 27c | 389$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 56c | 361.58$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…aecabacked No | 17c | 345.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 14c | 294.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…c6fdbacked No | 40c | 293.08$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 267.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 54c | 261.35$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…effcbacked Yes | 59c | 245$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 28c | 236.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…7c0fbacked Yes | 57c | 230.85$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 227.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 25c | 222$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40bb…72bebacked Yes | 63c | 158.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8194…ed51backed No | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…7a01backed Yes | 62c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a7…75bdbacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…087cbacked Yes | 62c | 129.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…1c60backed Yes | 55c | 126.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 45c | 121.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 62c | 112.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…7e88backed Yes | 64c | 105.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd2…826bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 60c | 94.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No | 33c | 91.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 56c | 90.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…a22bbacked Yes | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…a6b5backed Yes | 51c | 82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…862ebacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd025…9ab0backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2261…ddecbacked Yes | 71c | 77.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2efe…0a50backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5982…fa1ebacked Yes | 52c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…9816backed Yes | 40c | 62.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a53…0d24backed Yes | 65c | 61.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed Yes | 74c | 58.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…1a6fbacked Yes | 46c | 54.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 70c | 54.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…68dbbacked Yes | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa92a…894cbacked Yes | 77c | 51.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…0204backed Yes | 43c | 45.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe21d…f215backed Yes | 64c | 44.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…07c4backed Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…81d1backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…770dbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…49aabacked Yes | 65c | 38.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2027backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 61c | 32.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed No | 63c | 31.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…d82cbacked Yes | 58c | 31.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e1…778fbacked Yes | 60c | 27.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…6518backed Yes | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…3d82backed Yes | 59c | 25.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…1dd2backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 68c | 24.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes | 75c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb0…edf5backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…7644backed Yes | 61c | 18.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac3…e8a0backed Yes | 78c | 18.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 64c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- No Israel strike on Iran by Sunday?this page
- Will Israel strike Iran on Friday?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Monday?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.