TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0887…b235

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Commodities, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 53 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$182
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,250.07
Israel strikes Iran by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
EU sanctions on Iran by September 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+471.4%+$824.99
Israel strikes Iran before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$260
US x Iran ceasefire before August? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$327
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$370
Houthi strike on Israel before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$978Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$977.87
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,510Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+32.5%+$490
Khamenei seen in public before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,510Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+51.8%+$781.34
Israel strike on Iran on June 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Israel announces end of military operations against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$403.91
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Israel strikes Iranian oil in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+42.9%+$150
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,917Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+25.3%+$485.69
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$27.56
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$54
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,873Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$1,872.71
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$106.07
Israel military action against Yemen before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+156.4%+$122
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$97
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+42.9%+$48.62
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,746Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,746
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2024, EST1414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Nov 1-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$36
Will Trump tweet 90-99 times Nov 1-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$26.23
Will Trump tweet 110-119 times Nov 1-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$39
Will Trump tweet 120-129 times Nov 1-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$53.99
Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$96.73
Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$200
Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+406.3%+$642
Will Trump tweet 70-79 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$89.82
Will Trump tweet 60-69 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$53.03
Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$157.05
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$22.18
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT+566.7%+$425
Will Trump tweet 45-49 times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT-100%-$48
Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$154.95
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,249Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$562.27
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,477Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.4%+$523.12
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,045Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,045.46
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$834Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$834.48
Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$26.4
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,260.78
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June  22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$377Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+50.2%+$189.15
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$312.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$584Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$583.88
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$649.99
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$20
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$102
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$67
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$80
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$17.45
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$960Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$959.96
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2024, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+141.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$453Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+382.8%+$1,733.81
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$182.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+78.6%+$439.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$264.47
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Oct 16, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$31
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.