Us Politics · resolved market
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f07a7c6ffa6ddbbfa70f2d777789a37b8050dc522eb444fb33b536faf3e6ccb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 6,240$4,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.66 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 79c | 4,995$3,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 28c | 2,979$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.4 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 39c | 2,830$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 2,041$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.04 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 55c | 1,995$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.39 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,397$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.03 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 70c | 1,323$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 60c | 1,175$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.43 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 21c | 1,164$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.86 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 37c | 1,135$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.35 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 1,033$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.55 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 42c | 992.61$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.97 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 15c | 977.07$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 59c | 973.7$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.08 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 958.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 18c | 913.76$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…a779backed No | 61c | 821.05$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe8…6feabacked Yes | 16c | 691.81$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 29c | 681.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 27c | 631.42$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.18 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 68c | 531.05$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.46 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 16c | 526.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 22c | 513.52$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 8c | 508.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 42c | 470.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc04…5ee2backed No | 55c | 462.94$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 12c | 432.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 13c | 431.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 38c | 399.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 24c | 391$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.74 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed No | 56c | 369.92$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 9c | 362$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 15c | 361.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed No | 64c | 350$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 7c | 335$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 8c | 328$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 42c | 328$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.04 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 69c | 327.49$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.94 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 8c | 310$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…0bd8backed Yes | 25c | 299.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 22c | 296.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 294.74$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 26c | 281.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 41c | 276$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 51c | 273.49$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 31c | 270.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed Yes | 5c | 269$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 47c | 268.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 50c | 256$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.11 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 7c | 244$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 11c | 240.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…e33abacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 33c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 25c | 196.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…5bd0backed Yes | 22c | 182$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 63c | 177.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 176.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked No | 59c | 170.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 9c | 165$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 42c | 162.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…6361backed No | 64c | 157.47$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 7c | 156$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 7c | 156$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 74c | 147.31$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe923…0129backed No | 69c | 145.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed No | 78c | 128.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 64c | 128.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 126.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5c…e2fcbacked No | 52c | 121.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 21c | 116.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 29c | 112.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 110.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 48c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42ee…d049backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…ed86backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…621fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…8db7backed No | 62c | 94.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 50c | 89.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…918abacked Yes | 22c | 82.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 77.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 27c | 77.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…78a1backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 78c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072b…11fdbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed No | 73c | 68.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.