TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,292
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,292 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No68c6,240$4,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,971.6669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No79c4,995$3,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.011952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes28c2,979$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.419435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes39c2,830$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1095240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes11c2,041$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.0433313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No55c1,995$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.394259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes42c1,397$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.0341238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed No70c1,323$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No60c1,175$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.4335519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes21c1,164$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8614230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes37c1,135$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.3513943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c1,033$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.5556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes42c992.61$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.9737844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes15c977.07$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.275837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No59c973.7$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.089129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c958.49$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.471428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes18c913.76$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.03933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+95.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6634…a779backed No61c821.05$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.081070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffe8…6feabacked Yes16c691.81$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes29c681.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003735.1%13 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes27c631.42$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.185532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No68c531.05$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.4622347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked Yes16c526.52$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.05520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes22c513.52$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.893915.4%6 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes8c508.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.315225%13 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes42c470.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5332626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc04…5ee2backed No55c462.94$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes12c432.69$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.475550.9%28 W · 27 L+7.7wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+40.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes13c431.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4718746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes38c399.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507332.9%24 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes24c391$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.743560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x74f7…77c3backed No56c369.92$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.761050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+28.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed Yes9c362$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-78.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes15c361.24$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.54175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed No64c350$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.63171%22 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes7c335$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked Yes8c328$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes42c328$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0412839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No69c327.49$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.945642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes8c310$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.95210%0 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd2…0bd8backed Yes25c299.32$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.84837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes22c296.97$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.923231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No74c294.74$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6355618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes26c281.14$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6918425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked Yes41c276$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.681631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-55.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes51c273.49$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.487934.2%27 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes31c270.51$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.963225%8 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6891…1146backed Yes5c269$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked Yes47c268.97$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.092842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes50c256$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.115759.6%34 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes7c244$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes11c240.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.193721.6%8 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes7c222$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.54520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes21c200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4125241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3483…e33abacked No48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583129%9 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes33c200$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes25c196.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb3c…5bd0backed Yes22c182$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No63c177.3$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.564843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes31c176.12$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ee…119bbacked No59c170.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.331250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed Yes9c165$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes42c162.5$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.887167.6%48 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6e30…6361backed No64c157.47$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.69771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick41cpaid+48.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes7c156$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-53%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes7c156$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No74c147.31$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.555474.1%40 W · 14 L+8.4wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe923…0129backed No69c145.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a3…3490backed No78c128.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.95520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-74.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No64c128.51$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.267354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes32c126.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes49c125$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.253218.8%6 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e5c…e2fcbacked No52c121.15$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes21c116.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.567343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes29c112.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.634837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes26c110.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0314935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes48c110$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.33435.3%12 W · 22 L-6.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x42ee…d049backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3619328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d8d…ed86backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1460%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-79.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93b1…cde7backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-58.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212035%7 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc589…621fbacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2950%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.741,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3135…8db7backed No62c94.84$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No50c89.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.473452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42e…918abacked Yes22c82.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c77.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.651,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed Yes27c77.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.573959%23 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b7b…78a1backed No67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.63650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No78c74$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.284528.9%13 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x072b…11fdbacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2687…9a43backed No73c68.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.851330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.