TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x93b1…cde7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 27, 2025, EDT3215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.75
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.2
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+337.1%+$189.69
Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT+238.1%+$176.05
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.96
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$68
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.5
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.51
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.09
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.66
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.28
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.98
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.58
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+266%+$247.36
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.19
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-58.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$108
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$54
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
US-Iran nuclear deal before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.2
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.2
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+30%+$15.02
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$9.23
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+47.9%+$6.48
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$145
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+26%+$25.62
Trump approval >45% on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 17 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$206.9
Netanyahu out by 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.5
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$114
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$24.59
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$310
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$116.8
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+35.1%+$15.6
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$58.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Sep 10, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+37.5%+$23.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$134
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.