Us Politics · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61292b02286472d01047afefd694ae5ffcc68fac8c37a5ce0dc781d2be23ce8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $356,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $341,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $356,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 1c | 33,598$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.72 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 5c | 28,768$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.63 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 18,725$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 10c | 15,538$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.14 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 10c | 9,878$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.01 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 7c | 8,673$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.49 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 31c | 7,830$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 8c | 7,585$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 7,029$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 14c | 7,023$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.47 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 14c | 6,671$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 5,076$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…f979backed Yes | 25c | 4,444$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 16c | 4,205$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.02 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 71c | 3,991$2,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.6 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 5c | 3,750$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.24 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 75c | 3,175$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.82 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 4c | 3,141$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.62 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…22f4backed Yes | 29c | 2,583$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 22c | 2,564$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 4c | 2,450$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 12c | 2,365$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.04 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…434cbacked No | 75c | 1,904$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 1,728$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…6244backed Yes | 13c | 1,630$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 19c | 1,612$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,608$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.47 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 1,550$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.35 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d1…0ed4backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.79 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 14c | 1,461$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 15c | 1,450$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.28 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 6c | 1,300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…a307backed Yes | 26c | 1,284$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 22c | 1,001$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…aa15backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…378ebacked No | 77c | 911.17$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 850.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 11c | 836.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 14c | 833.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419d…7817backed No | 78c | 814.99$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada6…8bcfbacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 5c | 712.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…8b84backed Yes | 7c | 631.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…95f3backed No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…dd6bbacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 29c | 535.46$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 22c | 520$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…a091backed Yes | 14c | 507.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…131cbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 75c | 499.98$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…500bbacked Yes | 11c | 499.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6059…2f6ebacked Yes | 8c | 483.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Yes | 25c | 414.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +217.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 4c | 357.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…bb63backed Yes | 9c | 325$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 13c | 319$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked Yes | 23c | 299.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 20c | 283.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…9c3cbacked Yes | 9c | 283.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 24c | 253.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…5fa3backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +227.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…1c2bbacked Yes | 5c | 245.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 25c | 239.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 11c | 235.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 12c | 232.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 8c | 217.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed No | 74c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…ce1ebacked Yes | 11c | 183.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…884dbacked Yes | 10c | 153.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 145.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…e73abacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…03ebbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8664…9500backed Yes | 14c | 132$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…d4c5backed No | 77c | 121.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…70dcbacked Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb4…d58ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb83c…92bfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…8728backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +421.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 77c | 92.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…af31backed Yes | 29c | 72.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 15c | 70.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.