TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6ee3…bb63

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: World Politics, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 2, 2025, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-65.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel not strike Yemen by October 1 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.28
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 28 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Israel strike Yemen onSeptember 27 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 26 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$330
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,384Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,384.08
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13,581Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$13,580.99
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,000
Another Israel military action on Yemen before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$996Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT+28.4%+$283.03
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+27.5%+$220.07
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+30.1%+$91.65
Israel military action on Yemen before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT+61.6%+$18.48
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$155.72
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1586.7%13 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+43.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+38.9%+$194.44
Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$161.54
Will the next government of Suriname be VHP/NPS/ABOP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT+41.6%+$68.7
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,851Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+91%+$1,685.18
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+121.2%+$121.24
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,038Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+36.4%+$377.74
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,287Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+25.2%+$324.86
Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+115.9%+$232.9
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$6,136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,136
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,516Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+152.6%+$2,313.29
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$58.82
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$14.05
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Will Nicușor Dan win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+45.6%+$91.2
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump recognize Somaliland in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.3%+$127.05
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$301
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+73.3%+$146.62
US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$104.55
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+35.2%+$35.25
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
US-Saudi Arabia nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+38.4%+$17.07
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+44.8%+$13.45
All 12 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.