Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump by Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbada75ae4a5918ce04b5a38c8e90e42edfd3b124d6ac0972524a69073a96b90d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 1c | 9,151$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 3,080$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,541$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 3c | 2,355$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…a640backed Yes | 1c | 2,340$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 1c | 2,153$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…e513backed Yes | 2c | 1,316$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,197$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…7cadbacked Yes | 1c | 1,080$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…0771backed Yes | 5c | 1,072$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 7c | 1,003$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…8b70backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 15c | 791.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 665$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…950dbacked Yes | 6c | 583.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 553$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…6255backed Yes | 17c | 466.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 7c | 414.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…bb63backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 7c | 309.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11e…2230backed Yes | 7c | 304.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc8…a39cbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…7493backed Yes | 13c | 226$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81c4…9afebacked Yes | 10c | 218.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1140…c624backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…e692backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Yes | 13c | 151.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…0c5bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.