Us Politics · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0df4c916ed5aa1a7bce44967bfa43d2e113fcd28d731d74b1f71686f16497d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 12c | 10,585$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 10c | 7,519$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.82 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 7,000$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.17 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…f979backed Yes | 15c | 6,644$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 5,821$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 5,664$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 2c | 5,461$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…cb53backed Yes | 4c | 4,277$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 6c | 4,276$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 1c | 4,021$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 10c | 3,778$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 5c | 3,523$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.68 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 4c | 3,506$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.22 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 2c | 3,440$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 4c | 2,963$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,914$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.2 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 1c | 2,644$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 20c | 2,589$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 5c | 2,162$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 12c | 1,927$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.19 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…bb63backed Yes | 2c | 1,901$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…8646backed Yes | 2c | 1,847$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,645$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2db…218abacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,416$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Yes | 19c | 1,249$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…7d6cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,159$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 1,050$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…6883backed Yes | 1c | 1,045$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed Yes | 10c | 1,020$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a391backed Yes | 3c | 1,014$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 922.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…6b4fbacked Yes | 12c | 855.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…a861backed Yes | 9c | 820$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 13c | 699.89$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 670.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 4c | 637.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…4d49backed Yes | 11c | 628.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 14c | 602.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 599.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 10c | 596.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…8b84backed Yes | 7c | 572.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8664…9500backed Yes | 4c | 528$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 6c | 506.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 15c | 500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 16c | 500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc009…9561backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 6c | 493.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…cef3backed Yes | 9c | 421.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +176%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…1c2bbacked Yes | 8c | 415.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4e…25a6backed Yes | 22c | 318.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…10c2backed Yes | 13c | 279.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceeb…4985backed Yes | 14c | 256.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…70dcbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…a307backed Yes | 10c | 154.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…cf1cbacked Yes | 10c | 154.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…ab3fbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…03ebbacked Yes | 10c | 134.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 131.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 12c | 108.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d25…7048backed Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…97fcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…4d01backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…2bd1backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…72e1backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 80c | 19.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.