Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel not strike Yemen by October 1 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48f5429bc6d51ddae2a755ec9f535d2f5fcdf315096f6aaa7d15124e8f2d77e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 19c | 9,622$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.01 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 14c | 1,324$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.82 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 20c | 1,023$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.56 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 799.02$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.69 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 79c | 645.12$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.13 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 15c | 560.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 523.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 523.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 76c | 499.99$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.24 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…bc64backed No | 25c | 397.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 307$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 15c | 289.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 75c | 260.86$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 21c | 259.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 24c | 251.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 77c | 219.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…bb63backed No | 32c | 198.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…0182backed No | 10c | 163.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…d65abacked No | 20c | 157.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked No | 27c | 151.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 14c | 128.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 22c | 124.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 79c | 111.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 76c | 110.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…3616backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 28c | 98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed No | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…ca3fbacked No | 21c | 91.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 76c | 70.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…54acbacked No | 24c | 69.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…ee29backed No | 21c | 66.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e082backed No | 21c | 66.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…0b2fbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…1eb7backed Yes | 73c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 78c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel not strike Yemen by October 1 ET?this page
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 26 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on October 1 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 28 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 29 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 30 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen onSeptember 27 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.