Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad4de064a87815f738c0cdc748598051aa2a18b11291446eb24a28f7dfbf89fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 8c | 3,106$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.71 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,315$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 16c | 2,063$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.77 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…9a12backed Yes | 1c | 1,542$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,528$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 3c | 1,176$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 733.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 14c | 669.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 15c | 660.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 649.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 648.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 625.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 16c | 616.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 16c | 486.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19a…f66cbacked Yes | 22c | 454.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 381.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 16c | 360$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 327.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 8c | 309.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…68fdbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 299.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 21c | 285.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 73c | 280$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 6c | 253$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a6…8e0abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…c1b8backed Yes | 17c | 211.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…2916backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 20c | 142.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 18c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 131.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9261…9065backed Yes | 14c | 127.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0076…1f36backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 16c | 120.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…bb63backed Yes | 17c | 115.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…be73backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…818bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Yes | 17c | 88.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd976…1025backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…71dbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…7ec1backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…25bcbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.