Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe072f983b87320ae039b4987ec8da0c19c00848f57611586b5ceafbc6007b7e2

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,826,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,503,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,826,083 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	7c	179,333$11,737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,737.04	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	+9.9wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes	0c	176,270$786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$786.33	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	0cpaid	+2,830.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	7c	140,223$9,701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,700.52	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	2c	117,421$2,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,030.02	190	27.9%53 W · 137 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+53%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	65,500$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes	27c	62,619$17,158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,158.31	59	25.4%15 W · 44 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	0c	40,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	73	17.8%13 W · 60 L	-7.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4cdc…0eddbacked Yes	0c	35,211$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec7b…faadbacked Yes	1c	35,063$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.49	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+742.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f35…4437backed Yes	2c	30,979$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$697.2	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+397.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	4c	26,765$1,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,108.13	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a9…0bbcbacked Yes	8c	26,213$2,139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,139.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8b…39a6backed Yes	6c	25,871$1,609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,608.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc00d…6cd3backed Yes	9c	24,459$2,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,250	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.16per pick	24cpaid	+149.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed Yes	8c	23,800$1,810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,810.5	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c73…257cbacked Yes	5c	20,387$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	10cpaid	+229.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	0c	20,333$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	2c	20,290$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.99	88	38.6%34 W · 54 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b8f…92e2backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd0…0f6abacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes	1c	19,705$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.17	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes	0c	18,347$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.99	74	20.3%15 W · 59 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes	10c	17,758$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,699.95	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+3.5wins	+0.21per pick	26cpaid	+95.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes	3c	17,498$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.31	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	17cpaid	+97.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes	4c	16,951$762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.91	185	30.3%56 W · 129 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c94…816fbacked Yes	1c	16,718$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.79	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	22cpaid	-81%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes	26c	16,000$4,197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,197.02	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ce4…5c0ebacked Yes	1c	15,576$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.76	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+82.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84c…db87backed Yes	7c	15,268$1,132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,132.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce0…1368backed Yes	0c	15,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	0c	14,770$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.52	117	41%48 W · 69 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc224…53d7backed Yes	7c	14,695$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$998.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc292…92d8backed Yes	14c	14,146$1,980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,980.47	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb86d…3e71backed Yes	4c	13,794$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.78	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	17cpaid	+131.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes	1c	13,028$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.88	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-78.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb37…2bf1backed Yes	5c	13,028$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.43	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.25per pick	8cpaid	+441.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	3c	12,903$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.29	72	25%18 W · 54 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes	3c	11,517$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.38	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes	18c	11,136$2,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,045.6	84	56%47 W · 37 L	+9.4wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes	27c	10,954$2,981 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,981.31	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	1c	10,930$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.54	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef02…4f7ebacked Yes	0c	10,046$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes	6c	10,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	35	40%14 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x10d7…0423backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes	1c	10,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	182	14.8%27 W · 155 L	+11.4wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+218.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5af…3e1abacked Yes	1c	9,844$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4075…36fdbacked Yes	6c	9,734$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$593.52	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes	4c	9,670$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.85	121	29.8%36 W · 85 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	9,531$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.68	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a36…bd73backed Yes	6c	8,700$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	9c	8,346$744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$743.95	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+70.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	1c	7,832$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	6cpaid	+136.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes	1c	7,823$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+647.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes	10c	7,750$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$794.58	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1bd…b9a1backed Yes	7c	7,510$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	1c	7,184$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.55	140	27.9%39 W · 101 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed Yes	4c	7,048$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.18	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeed7…c2e0backed Yes	3c	6,851$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+212%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x61e0…fa5abacked Yes	1c	6,792$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.92	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33de…76f9backed Yes	9c	6,365$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes	9c	5,983$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.52	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes	6c	5,932$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.99	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+3.1wins	+0.12per pick	23cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7bd…eab6backed Yes	4c	5,764$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	+193.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	1c	5,520$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.27	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+214.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe668…4d08backed Yes	2c	5,387$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.58	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae64…aca9backed Yes	4c	5,318$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.31	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+43%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6653…110dbacked Yes	6c	5,279$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.32per pick	28cpaid	+231.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x889d…2a06backed Yes	5c	5,116$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	5,100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	101	8.9%9 W · 92 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+115.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes	0c	5,002$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a1…1149backed Yes	21c	5,000$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+1,419.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65f9…ae8abacked Yes	7c	4,944$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.56	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	2c	4,619$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.97	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes	6c	4,531$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.55	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	10c	4,529$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.71	180	36.7%66 W · 114 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c1…2dbcbacked Yes	7c	4,500$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes	5c	4,081$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.53	79	32.9%26 W · 53 L	+7.2wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	3c	4,030$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.2	94	18.1%17 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…4beabacked Yes	7c	3,896$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a62…e491backed Yes	1c	3,824$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	+1,403.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f1…d5c5backed Yes	7c	3,662$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac4…1f20backed Yes	1c	3,479$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	37cpaid	-77.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	21c	3,375$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.49	482	24.7%119 W · 363 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…8f90backed Yes	3c	3,296$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.41	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+154.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f7d…7acdbacked Yes	2c	3,250$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.6	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	8cpaid	+149.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cda…bb78backed Yes	6c	3,043$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f28…d846backed Yes	7c	3,000$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	19c	3,000$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560	166	16.9%28 W · 138 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes	23c	3,000$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x241e…33a9backed Yes	4c	2,996$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.43per pick	7cpaid	+392.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd822…697bbacked Yes	34c	2,941$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes	1c	2,900$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.94	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	19c	2,894$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539.63	179	21.2%38 W · 141 L	+10.6wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+56.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab32…98bcbacked Yes	6c	2,824$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.46	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+40.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x709f…635abacked Yes	0c	2,768$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes	5c	2,744$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.81	76	25%19 W · 57 L	-7.3wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes	4c	2,698$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.4	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+46.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f58…129abacked Yes	4c	2,686$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+582.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a3…973abacked Yes	5c	2,667$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event