Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e945cade307304c4579f17acf4750f1c3e5a68225cc5f24d54226e2db742725

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,887,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $984,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,887,722 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes	0c	486,177$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.88	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	0cpaid	+2,830.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1375…0383backed Yes	0c	186,872$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a1b…e1e3backed Yes	0c	183,392$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	93,000$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes	0c	48,333$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.33	361	4.4%16 W · 345 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes	0c	40,355$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.28	412	1%4 W · 408 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+171.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes	0c	33,636$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.27	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32b…356bbacked Yes	0c	31,425$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.85	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeddf…7bfdbacked Yes	0c	27,494$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.05	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb2…bc8cbacked Yes	0c	21,778$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	0c	20,917$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	0c	19,295$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.59	452	1.1%5 W · 447 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+156.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2134…3288backed Yes	0c	19,051$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3553…8740backed Yes	0c	16,658$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04b2…e801backed Yes	0c	15,833$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	15	0%0 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes	0c	14,360$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	54	0%0 W · 54 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe136…6918backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	0c	7,940$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.94	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+63.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…3e48backed Yes	0c	7,152$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	28cpaid	+55.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x796a…b0a4backed Yes	0c	6,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+72.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf9d9…677abacked Yes	0c	6,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb58c…6900backed Yes	0c	5,573$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.72	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x425b…b6c4backed Yes	0c	5,327$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-50%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ab…a766backed Yes	1c	5,311$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-82%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ef…0d29backed Yes	0c	5,293$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc7…3aa2backed Yes	1c	5,252$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f35…4437backed Yes	0c	4,105$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+397.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5243…6e02backed Yes	0c	3,820$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event