TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,037,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,230,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,037,728 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 326 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c225,351$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.66229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick0cpaid+2,830.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes23c170,000$38,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,622.741915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes15c129,253$18,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,965.069345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes14c124,688$17,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,871.1825337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d4…f102backed Yes9c54,065$5,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,006.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes13c48,445$6,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,111.245925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes9c45,182$3,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,880.4418530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c35,218$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.9919027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc00d…6cd3backed Yes11c26,654$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+149.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes12c25,540$3,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,151.5843243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes22c24,500$5,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4853540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4cdc…0eddbacked Yes15c24,313$3,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,764425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes30c24,059$7,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,102.2511247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes11c20,249$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,210.8714330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes10c19,663$1,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.282142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f35…4437backed Yes8c19,558$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.21315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+397.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes14c16,597$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,294.8918036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed Yes3c16,059$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.792313%3 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes21c15,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1503444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked Yes26c14,000$3,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5902045%9 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+2,378.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes30c13,361$4,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,005.511421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-48.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c13,241$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.086883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes22c13,029$2,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,826.968047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes1c12,000$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes14c11,923$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.7111428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c36…1627backed Yes9c11,916$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes4c11,707$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.744814.6%7 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048e…6e41backed Yes0c11,647$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322313%3 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes12c11,566$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.463030%9 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+640.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Yes21c11,217$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,385.36742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8731…1181backed Yes8c11,141$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.957057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes3c10,785$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.558838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd586…87e2backed Yes4c10,301$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+76.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1970…74b1backed Yes3c10,247$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.87520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd0…0f6abacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10270%0 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…91dabacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes10c9,325$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.3211741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dbd…a700backed Yes3c7,492$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c7,399$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.949418.1%17 W · 77 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeed7…c2e0backed Yes7c7,372$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+212%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes5c6,906$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.9810533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3392…1cacbacked Yes2c6,816$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes12c6,015$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7398456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes5c5,758$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.883614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa257…ea6ebacked No78c5,500$4,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd829…95f9backed Yes3c5,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6364…09a8backed Yes7c5,000$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+112.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x998d…b62cbacked Yes3c4,651$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+165.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes22c4,176$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.3114240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…97bfbacked Yes16c4,112$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-64.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…72abbacked Yes3c4,000$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes16c3,719$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.573917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb2…bc8cbacked Yes5c3,717$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c94…816fbacked Yes4c3,500$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes26c3,500$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.697423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes8c3,378$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.515030%15 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes6c3,327$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5348224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes8c3,250$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+97.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes10c3,197$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.537740.3%31 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes8c3,121$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.2618214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes23c3,116$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.615740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbdf…7f36backed Yes6c3,096$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes3c3,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked Yes19c2,941$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.562948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd19e…2fc9backed Yes3c2,910$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+354.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9a…f836backed Yes2c2,900$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a15…96b3backed Yes16c2,851$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+68.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f91…9388backed Yes12c2,755$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes3c2,708$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.514027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdddd…394fbacked Yes14c2,653$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc821…3df4backed Yes3c2,596$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8180%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505044%22 W · 28 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+223.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes10c2,484$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.7211039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes18c2,410$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.587047.1%33 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes7c2,402$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6220325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes14c2,371$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.7426139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c2,370$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.0156314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd48…2ce1backed Yes18c2,357$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.32560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+53.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c2,308$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.011,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3154…e615backed Yes7c2,285$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.951526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb30…636bbacked Yes2c2,255$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes2c2,224$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.46812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes6c2,133$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.993928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes7c2,017$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.23420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes23c2,000$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4556328.6%18 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd1…070dbacked Yes6c1,976$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.81118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8e5…610ebacked Yes27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+682.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5445…4e0bbacked Yes14c1,800$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2581225%3 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-62.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes11c1,750$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.792050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b6b…994dbacked Yes11c1,710$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb782…955cbacked Yes14c1,704$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.841421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d5…709bbacked Yes16c1,675$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.941241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x959a…b1afbacked Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+97.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9078…3686backed Yes3c1,657$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+476%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2433…08a1backed Yes18c1,637$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes4c1,610$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.74440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa242…4ea0backed Yes2c1,600$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes3c1,578$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.042133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed No70c1,572$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.782835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.