Us Politics · resolved market
US-Saudi Arabia nuclear deal before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa407b6e31453adbe0b774487092970cff60c79483516748520fac1b38f298e1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,707$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 49c | 2,793$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.68 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 45c | 2,790$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.57 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 74c | 2,160$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.27 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,034$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 22c | 1,935$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.86 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 75c | 1,873$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.33 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 12c | 1,356$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.51 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 4c | 1,283$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes | 80c | 1,280$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed No | 14c | 1,205$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 69c | 1,034$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.09 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 43c | 924.2$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 24c | 858.19$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.79 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 29c | 767.33$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.73 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 27c | 762.96$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 49c | 751.45$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.37 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 47c | 635.98$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.21 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 74c | 601.74$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.45 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 600.3$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.14 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 22c | 579.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 68c | 569.85$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.35 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 78c | 499.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 31c | 493.35$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.88 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 51c | 472$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.28 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 79c | 438.01$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed No | 5c | 433.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…da88backed Yes | 76c | 360$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 31c | 347.94$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 39c | 331.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.63 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 37c | 330$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.9 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 55c | 324.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.45 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 61c | 309.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.89 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 28c | 282.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.56 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 23c | 249.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 249.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 48c | 240$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…4942backed Yes | 70c | 207.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 48c | 179.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 25c | 178.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 55c | 171.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 169.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…2adfbacked Yes | 76c | 154.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 49c | 129.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 80c | 125.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…d6c3backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 49c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 28c | 102.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…df10backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 23c | 99.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 23c | 97.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 54c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…a22ebacked No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ef…239ebacked Yes | 70c | 71.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 66c | 71.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…4c9fbacked No | 21c | 70.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df1…ef06backed Yes | 29c | 70.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed No | 30c | 70.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…f71fbacked No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…44c5backed No | 21c | 67.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 26c | 63.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…bb63backed Yes | 72c | 61.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…e8a4backed Yes | 77c | 52.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…a149backed No | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked No | 75c | 34.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed7…516cbacked No | 47c | 31.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x794e…b978backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…7afcbacked No | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf6…4694backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5326…f3efbacked No | 54c | 22.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.