TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military action against Iran before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,506,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,512,994

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,506,859 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,732 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc0a0…ac10backed Yes40c137,301$54,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,715.494100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+168%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No68c124,548$84,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,628.8137740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No58c113,458$65,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,691.794257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No68c112,102$76,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,495.59831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes22c90,707$19,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,796.522166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+55.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No66c86,941$57,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,654.0635347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce41…fa02backed Yes22c83,382$18,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,945.361172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+71.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No73c75,929$55,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,793.1810150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No29c73,373$21,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,408.666134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x59cf…4275backed Yes25c66,260$16,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,957.681070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+126%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes35c65,808$22,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,016.53036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4107…e29cbacked No69c65,555$45,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,447.84650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes34c60,493$20,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,062.4516743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No70c58,794$41,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,221.978552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No72c58,386$41,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,871.7313850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No75c57,999$43,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,486.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ed1…fcfdbacked Yes32c57,824$18,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,037.28966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No72c51,860$37,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,474.6128750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No66c47,500$31,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,112.834156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e2…adf9backed Yes23c45,000$10,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,820.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+266.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed7a…67babacked Yes22c42,741$9,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,338.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes26c41,234$10,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,6104146.3%19 W · 22 L+9.6wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+219.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No53c40,991$21,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,801.714126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No76c36,054$27,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,300.656942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed No56c36,000$20,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,295.75966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes43c35,415$15,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,011.623933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe12a…d428backed Yes19c34,700$6,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,010.11258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+138.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No28c32,175$9,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,020.562321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No59c31,499$18,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,472.257538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bac…6634backed Yes29c31,260$9,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,132.071266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+66.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked Yes25c30,403$7,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,678.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+193.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b94…951abacked Yes24c30,064$7,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,943.642528%7 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa584…28e5backed Yes23c30,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,999.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+113.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa94d…415fbacked Yes20c29,832$6,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,821.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+233.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No51c28,674$14,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,711.959154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0afc…30b2backed Yes45c28,572$12,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,787.3683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick38cpaid+136.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No60c27,828$16,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,588.968137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x34cd…4231backed Yes35c27,779$9,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,996.611442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+96.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No64c26,739$17,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,057.5120336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No49c25,737$12,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,688.71752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes51c25,362$13,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,340.571838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes26c25,322$6,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,795.8717929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0856…b042backed No75c25,000$18,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,65010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No60c24,470$14,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,599.0228427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes27c23,222$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,021.977751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcc0…4353backed Yes27c21,494$5,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,586.641241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No60c21,350$12,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,736.3811141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd22e…cb68backed Yes28c21,203$5,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,235.14650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f22…faafbacked Yes30c21,136$6,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,743.423100%3 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+579.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cd7…37e3backed No1c20,743$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No62c20,493$12,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,683.6617530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes27c20,437$5,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,866.471822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No78c19,233$15,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,084.627558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8002…8b6cbacked No78c19,000$14,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,820683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b2c…b691backed Yes26c18,972$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,971.7475%3 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.54per pick21cpaid+278.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2968…38fcbacked Yes53c18,692$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,691.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No71c18,660$13,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,302.5621259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed No57c18,600$10,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,569.768845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes24c18,581$4,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,076.92156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed No74c18,544$13,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,768.175248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db1…46a4backed Yes31c18,384$5,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,608.82634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No71c18,014$12,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,855.63644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No62c17,558$10,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,829.812227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c17,300$12,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,924.9564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbf5f…79b0backed Yes28c16,212$4,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,707.674100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+140.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No54c15,814$8,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,547.978617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No73c15,490$11,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,267.873050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes60c14,311$8,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,788.577946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No44c14,269$6,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,327.063941%16 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x630e…2f2fbacked No71c14,156$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x61a3…b145backed Yes29c14,105$4,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,987.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+68%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No77c14,097$10,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,864.5718151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No75c14,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,5009145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No49c13,734$6,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,731.092142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No58c13,013$7,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,501.1131649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No68c13,000$8,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,865.951540%6 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No74c13,000$9,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,639.951758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+116.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes29c12,999$3,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,173.282653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes38c12,974$4,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,991.6251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed No59c12,565$7,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,416.76742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c3…289cbacked Yes46c12,452$5,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,692.272842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf60c…85c0backed Yes39c12,205$4,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,443.273100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+154.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No66c11,953$7,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,865.438749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No67c11,836$7,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,898.595248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef75…0be7backed Yes42c11,808$4,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,856.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e72…e7cabacked No34c11,800$3,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,954.251546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c3e…3d75backed No78c11,454$8,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,888.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes31c11,151$3,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,718.921323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb2…2677backed Yes31c10,768$3,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,435.512040%8 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+30.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x118f…4f4bbacked Yes29c10,600$3,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,546366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick17cpaid+370.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes63c10,507$6,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,881.136141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No39c10,402$4,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,061.0215626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d24…d227backed No71c10,367$7,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,382.62742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No72c10,316$7,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,390.964757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1c9…96d9backed No45c10,080$4,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,519.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf459…a5c8backed Yes32c10,078$3,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,890.641643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+65.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes57c10,062$5,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,338.674742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes34c9,895$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,564.3336750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbec7…6cfdbacked No51c9,763$4,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,979.061478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.31per pick48cpaid+68.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No1c9,748$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6226619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.