Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89cbae04e562443ed077ed62f34888b7488a32ce53075f2ac020839e6a63da1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,370,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,153,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,370,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 74c | 326,717$241,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,722.72 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…9030backed No | 5c | 261,240$13,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,205.7 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3385…fc58backed No | 5c | 168,321$7,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,666.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 62c | 138,533$85,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,020.87 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…6ea3backed No | 0c | 101,920$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 6c | 75,541$4,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,854.05 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 31c | 66,824$20,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,432.26 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 78c | 61,463$48,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,240.24 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 23c | 60,681$13,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,711.22 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…e442backed No | 0c | 58,580$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 12c | 54,035$6,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,665.53 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed No | 49c | 50,000$24,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,359.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 59c | 46,110$26,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,121.43 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 75c | 44,030$33,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,810.37 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 76c | 39,613$30,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,588.63 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked No | 27c | 39,139$10,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,595.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a40…d801backed No | 4c | 37,960$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 7c | 37,496$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…289cbacked No | 7c | 36,082$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…565fbacked No | 1c | 35,817$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…91e9backed No | 47c | 31,296$14,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,807.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 0c | 31,189$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked No | 3c | 29,004$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…d7ddbacked No | 0c | 27,624$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed No | 1c | 25,965$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.78 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked No | 28c | 25,754$7,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,185.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…1588backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed No | 19c | 23,798$4,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,434.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 15c | 22,332$3,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,405.59 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…cef3backed Yes | 64c | 22,300$14,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,989.43 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 23c | 22,231$5,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,196.75 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 34c | 21,735$7,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,294.3 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 51c | 21,341$10,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,483.19 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9558backed No | 23c | 20,887$4,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,783.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 75c | 20,738$15,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,158.66 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…e3e0backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3421…5cafbacked No | 35c | 19,664$6,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,830.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 68c | 19,092$12,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,186.59 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 48c | 18,880$9,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,115.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 66c | 18,051$11,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,102.63 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked No | 31c | 16,341$5,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,131.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…609fbacked No | 29c | 15,650$4,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,481.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…6119backed No | 13c | 15,440$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 31c | 15,368$4,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,724.6 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…c79abacked No | 0c | 15,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 21c | 14,316$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.91 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…387ebacked No | 11c | 13,940$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 68c | 13,933$9,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,515.97 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 2c | 13,276$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.72 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 77c | 13,107$10,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,073.76 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…95e6backed No | 40c | 13,008$5,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,233.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ee…e56bbacked No | 2c | 12,899$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…bb63backed No | 11c | 12,819$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 68c | 11,910$8,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,864 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 36c | 11,611$4,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,231.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 61c | 11,395$6,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,415.28 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 26c | 11,226$2,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,870.03 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…d789backed No | 45c | 11,178$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,996.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…f740backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked No | 1c | 10,802$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 75c | 10,628$8,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.04 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 17c | 10,442$1,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.73 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc14e…3a06backed No | 1c | 10,185$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a8…52febacked No | 14c | 10,145$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed No | 20c | 10,089$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked No | 18c | 10,071$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.37 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58dc…97bebacked No | 25c | 10,057$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…c77abacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 76c | 9,965$7,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.08 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb049…cc61backed No | 12c | 9,865$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b3…e0a0backed No | 0c | 9,630$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 72c | 9,590$6,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.46 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…7ca4backed No | 3c | 9,436$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed No | 29c | 9,311$2,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,717.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed No | 8c | 9,158$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.52 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 10c | 9,069$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.23 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…f27dbacked Yes | 64c | 9,016$5,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,206.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…b74abacked No | 32c | 8,948$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,872.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…ad93backed No | 30c | 8,652$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…abd4backed No | 0c | 8,598$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked No | 42c | 7,955$3,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,307.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes | 76c | 7,901$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1,025.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 49c | 7,771$3,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,802.13 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 22c | 7,676$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.51 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 69c | 7,371$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.67 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…1819backed No | 9c | 7,341$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 57c | 7,000$3,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,017.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 21c | 6,999$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.66 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 23c | 6,961$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.8 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…d66abacked No | 14c | 6,926$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…63b4backed Yes | 68c | 6,823$4,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.88 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Yes | 74c | 6,772$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.03 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…2edcbacked No | 1c | 6,712$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…ed6fbacked No | 4c | 6,635$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked No | 30c | 6,604$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 58c | 6,536$3,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,734.05 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 12c | 6,416$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.28 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 72c | 6,393$4,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.97 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked No | 2c | 6,268$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 6c | 6,257$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.42 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.