World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f380ebbe2747c28b2c3db654da9522dcfb06e0e38da5ff652c687c40052337a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 29c | 1,070$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.42 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf02…3638backed No | 30c | 985$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 70c | 452.36$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.68 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 59c | 371.46$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.21 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…ce04backed Yes | 70c | 335$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 23c | 304.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.31 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 62c | 299.98$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed No | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 65c | 229.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb296…cb8fbacked Yes | 64c | 221.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…86d8backed Yes | 70c | 190$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 64c | 180$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 72c | 179$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…771dbacked No | 43c | 178.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 34c | 175.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…403cbacked Yes | 70c | 175$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe357…e06dbacked Yes | 70c | 170$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…2829backed No | 29c | 167$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…16edbacked Yes | 66c | 151.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 36c | 149.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…9ae8backed Yes | 70c | 130$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ea…28dabacked No | 47c | 126.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 31c | 121.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb916…467cbacked No | 64c | 110.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 25c | 109$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed No | 32c | 105.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 32c | 105$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7098…d87bbacked Yes | 72c | 101.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 33c | 97.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 71c | 93.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 29c | 86.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 43c | 83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 51c | 79.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 58c | 79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2e90backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 75.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 58c | 68.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Yes | 70c | 64.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 60.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Yes | 64c | 57.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 64c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdffc…53e6backed Yes | 67c | 40.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0484backed Yes | 65c | 38.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 36c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…5f6abacked Yes | 59c | 33.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…9fa7backed Yes | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6843…e2d5backed No | 43c | 30.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6742…05e4backed Yes | 75c | 29.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed Yes | 57c | 27.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…bb63backed Yes | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 69c | 16.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.