World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe17a118d4c50214037bf26904396e4930d3d42ae5a773ebd8d3aa1c06fe4882
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe760…0ae4backed Yes | 34c | 825$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e1…64dbbacked No | 66c | 655$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 67c | 230.58$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe8…5bbdbacked Yes | 34c | 175$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 66c | 169.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d03ebacked No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac2…d629backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…ccc8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…140bbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 34c | 98.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 97.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…a86ebacked No | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7098…d87bbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 41c | 81.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 60.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 66c | 48.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…70d5backed No | 79c | 47.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Yes | 36c | 41.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 32c | 41.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 65c | 23.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 67c | 22.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.