World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3b5b197690f9bcece80775d274acc5f757b8178e0fae425ce5314903915fe71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd44b…bea3backed No | 28c | 27,613$7,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,731.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f89…0febbacked Yes | 72c | 27,613$19,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,731.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 72c | 1,281$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.26 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 28c | 935.1$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.63 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 599.97$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf222…9718backed No | 34c | 518.84$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…975dbacked Yes | 77c | 500.26$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 23c | 459.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb584…4432backed No | 27c | 420.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 25c | 399.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…f3febacked No | 26c | 381.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 72c | 332.31$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 75c | 326.07$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed No | 32c | 308.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 73c | 299.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 29c | 255$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 25c | 225$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 68c | 208.38$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.99 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 58c | 190.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 71c | 181.41$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 148.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 75c | 133.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 72c | 128.86$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aef…6a38backed No | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ad…c4d5backed Yes | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +173.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c4…ff35backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 75c | 89.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…7dcbbacked No | 73c | 87.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…3a85backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246a…19b8backed No | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…76cabacked No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd7…468ebacked No | 54c | 71.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853d…790fbacked No | 28c | 71.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a62…0ce7backed Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked No | 33c | 69.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…1c49backed No | 33c | 67.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…5d66backed Yes | 75c | 66.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed Yes | 75c | 66.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea4…4345backed Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed No | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 54.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 74c | 52.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 30c | 50.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…e7b8backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 73c | 49.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…3f78backed No | 34c | 43.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 75c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 30c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…8c3abacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…11a8backed Yes | 74c | 37.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 41c | 34.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed No | 34c | 31.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 73c | 30.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbb…7c6cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cc…74b9backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2585…9a55backed Yes | 74c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…36b1backed Yes | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 75c | 25.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc675…f8debacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…41f2backed Yes | 73c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…e430backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 71c | 17.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.