TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,337

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,577 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd44b…bea3backed No28c27,613$7,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,731.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f89…0febbacked Yes72c27,613$19,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,731.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes72c1,281$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.2616744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No28c935.1$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.635139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c599.97$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.9954934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf222…9718backed No34c518.84$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4332…975dbacked Yes77c500.26$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed No28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.442317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed No23c459.1$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.41546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb584…4432backed No27c420.59$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.21425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No25c399.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.999627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x674d…f3febacked No26c381.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes72c332.31$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.277944.3%35 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed Yes75c326.07$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.358726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+258.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed No32c308.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002729.6%8 W · 19 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-47.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes73c299.99$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816648.5%32 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No29c255$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9513525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No25c225$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.36950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes68c208.38$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.11258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+84.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes27c199.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.995527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes72c199.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5615230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes58c190.32$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.323100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes71c181.41$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4224736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No25c148.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.511,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.932846.4%13 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331625%4 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes75c133.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.32977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked No72c128.86$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.02933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aef…6a38backed No33c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+80.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes72c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ad…c4d5backed Yes74c110$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+173.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5c4…ff35backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes67c99.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3317524.6%43 W · 132 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes75c89.72$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.434231%13 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c3…7dcbbacked No73c87.3$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1028…3a85backed Yes75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x246a…19b8backed No28c75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc387…76cabacked No27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-26.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd7…468ebacked No54c71.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x853d…790fbacked No28c71.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a62…0ce7backed Yes75c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked No33c69.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.83633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9a…1c49backed No33c67.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…5d66backed Yes75c66.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.93825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf629…f0c4backed Yes75c66.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.771735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea4…4345backed Yes72c65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No25c64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No30c64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf4…c381backed No58c59.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.99185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-73.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes71c54.89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.911,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes74c52.26$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.69875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+81.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No30c50.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.512056.7%68 W · 52 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed No25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe991…9969backed Yes73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c97…e7b8backed Yes63c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes32c49.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.784850%24 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes73c49.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3557636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bb7…3f78backed No34c43.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes75c41.33$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked No30c39.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+147.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd85…8c3abacked Yes76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.474100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf88…11a8backed Yes74c37.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.711266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes41c34.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.11827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9587…8a10backed No34c31.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.77277.4%2 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes73c30.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.433148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22737%10 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecbb…7c6cbacked Yes70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed Yes71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.174942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6cc…74b9backed Yes72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.783100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2585…9a55backed Yes74c26.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe958…36b1backed Yes75c26.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes75c25.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc675…f8debacked Yes74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.271346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d8…9c51backed Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+68.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5042…fcb0backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54173.2%30 W · 11 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9287…41f2backed Yes73c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.53348.5%16 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick63cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d0a…e430backed Yes76c19.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.74742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78b2…26abbacked Yes71c17.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.