TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,865 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ed…47d8backed No30c951.03$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.3913525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No25c949.37$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.656950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes69c799.99$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2445425.9%14 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No26c599.98$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1539627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes70c579.98$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.591241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed No28c500$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.682317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No27c500$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.661942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes74c457.14$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.14850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+64.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed No23c438$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.445424.1%13 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c400$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11554934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No25c385.83$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.093444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f6…0718backed Yes76c371.96$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes73c328.63$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.736648.5%32 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No22c300.75$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.163132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed Yes75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No34c296.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002846.4%13 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed No34c293.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002729.6%8 W · 19 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-47.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes75c266.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.681625%4 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65b3…a601backed Yes76c261.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.832030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+76.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x56b3…272cbacked Yes77c241.89$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed Yes75c231.39$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.058726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+258.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf4…c381backed No44c217.12$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-73.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No21c205.6$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7824736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b1…4960backed No25c203.76$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Yes63c200$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes73c199.89$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.187932.9%26 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No27c187.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3738023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…c83dbacked Yes76c173.61$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No23c154.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.12147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No33c152.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.226538.5%25 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.212056.7%68 W · 52 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x674d…f3febacked Yes69c145.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e9…b9b1backed Yes69c140.56$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No21c135.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3916744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f2d…9a86backed Yes70c132.57$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+60.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a62…0ce7backed Yes78c129.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.01580%4 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes78c128.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.05977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No30c119.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366927.5%19 W · 50 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No25c116.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0557636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No30c114.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.249053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303250%16 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2415230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5c4…ff35backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9759…010abacked No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe991…9969backed Yes75c99.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.52445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked No22c99.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c65…7a9bbacked No32c87.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes74c82.84$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.771,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x423b…cb44backed Yes78c76.88$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.91560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes69c74.68$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.991225%3 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+84.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdea1…9278backed No28c70.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes52c64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.722931%9 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc710…afe5backed Yes73c63.45$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.131050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d25…4f9fbacked No33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61d8…9c51backed No19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+68.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c97…e7b8backed Yes73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfde3…719abacked Yes78c55.34$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.34977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+42.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb80…2a93backed Yes80c50.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c61…f292backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed No26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-78.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes76c49.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No27c44.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.857944.3%35 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…618cbacked Yes71c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.622250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No24c43.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.531443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf88…11a8backed Yes76c37.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.031266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1178…d056backed Yes77c35.34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed No32c34.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No32c34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.881,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9944…b035backed Yes68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8951…0394backed Yes70c28.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb66…5e13backed Yes74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.032259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa68a…850cbacked Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3900…a9c5backed Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b48…4759backed Yes68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.753348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb329…ff96backed Yes68c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.944100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+227.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe958…36b1backed Yes74c21.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c04…f51abacked Yes74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf088…4942backed Yes80c20.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.011428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-49.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f2b…a68bbacked Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed Yes74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-57%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ead…3c7dbacked Yes68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92a8…595abacked Yes68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea27…8a0bbacked Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…fcb0backed Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44173.2%30 W · 11 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x53c9…46f9backed Yes68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42737%10 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e8…38b5backed Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccee…5724backed Yes79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.151656.3%9 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c69…29fabacked Yes68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.53933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d3…ca0bbacked Yes67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.