TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xccee…5724

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2025, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Han Duck-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.7
Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$19.2
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+26.8%+$32.75
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.6
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$76.6
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$18.5
Will the next Pope be from Europe?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.1
Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$7
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.59
Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$3.15
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+41.4%+$13.1
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+33.8%+$47.95
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.1
Yoon reinstated as President before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$14.7
All 16 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$16.5
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+117.4%+$16.2
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$21.6
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$23.5
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$15
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+150%+$30
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$18
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$15.9
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+28.9%+$33.63
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$82
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$98
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.6
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$419Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+53.9%+$226.18
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2025, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.8
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$5.52
US-China trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$90.66
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+75.1%+$22.75
TikTok sale announced before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+40.5%+$37.5
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+138.3%+$150.9
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$4.95
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,501Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+59.3%+$890.08
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+72.4%+$8.4
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$16.61
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$16.8
Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nothing Ever Happens backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+67.1%+$28.1
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Supreme Court delay the Tiktok ban?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+34.9%+$101.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$6.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$467.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.