Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93cb520d000325a082afac2b01ad8d901758cf142f2cb5a116ec9f5c73c7f6d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…7afcbacked No | 75c | 298$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 72c | 205$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 74c | 202.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 76c | 198.34$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 8c | 196.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 176.08$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 25c | 173.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 77c | 152.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +291.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 77c | 146.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f03…2fadbacked Yes | 25c | 123.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…35fbbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 69c | 88.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 70c | 84.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612b…b036backed Yes | 25c | 75.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a8…fb9dbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4a…1f4cbacked Yes | 25c | 67.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x493b…763abacked Yes | 25c | 58.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 50.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7811…b289backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4e…014bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 73c | 33.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…a888backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccee…5724backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 63c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?this page
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "COVID" or "Pandemic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "China" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "India" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oz" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.