Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b1cf8611acf46e287d072929e7e8d6f0830361b4f3548607bcef27c328714a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 31c | 1,485$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…2b47backed No | 32c | 660$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…f2aebacked No | 28c | 660$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…7afcbacked No | 30c | 579$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…f0f2backed Yes | 68c | 575$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 32c | 482.03$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.09 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 26c | 428.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 31c | 324.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…d982backed No | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…bba0backed No | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 76c | 238.52$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 213.79$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 31c | 211$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f67…15c4backed Yes | 68c | 205$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed No | 11c | 192.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…d655backed Yes | 68c | 185$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 69c | 175.62$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 69c | 164.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 69c | 127.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 55cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f3…f7e3backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 69c | 98.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…047cbacked Yes | 73c | 96.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 33c | 94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 36c | 87.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 70c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 71c | 81.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb80…2a93backed Yes | 71c | 70.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…5c12backed Yes | 73c | 69.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…531cbacked No | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…71eebacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 75c | 60.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…6c39backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…d440backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…0394backed Yes | 70c | 33.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 63c | 33.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed Yes | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4a…1f4cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc710…afe5backed Yes | 73c | 23.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec4…226fbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed Yes | 65c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0b…41febacked Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…95b1backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…7bd5backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…93b3backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "COVID" or "Pandemic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "China" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "India" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oz" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.