Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Oz" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9667efbc58917fecb9ecb4e2d3a7bce697840966e4e1d3f0c94bbde0c7be777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x144d…f0f2backed Yes | 56c | 990$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5df…15edbacked Yes | 56c | 935$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…37adbacked No | 43c | 840$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…7793backed No | 44c | 810$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…f2aebacked Yes | 57c | 750$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 39c | 730$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.38 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25a0…7694backed Yes | 57c | 585$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604f…9c80backed No | 44c | 560$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a459backed No | 43c | 545$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…a5b0backed Yes | 57c | 390$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ce…0088backed No | 44c | 340$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…cdd9backed No | 43c | 280$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…511dbacked Yes | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 56c | 204.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 53c | 191.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecc…1f6ebacked No | 43c | 175$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…3888backed No | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 44c | 142$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 136$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 56c | 121.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e00…c7dcbacked No | 44c | 115$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d03ebacked No | 74c | 115$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 46c | 108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 54c | 92.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 36c | 83.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 54c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 70c | 69.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…d982backed Yes | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 62.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…7bd5backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…2ff5backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…becdbacked Yes | 58c | 34.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 55c | 29.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…4427backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa107…ec62backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…61f0backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…4875backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…3553backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…8399backed Yes | 78c | 24.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Oz" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "COVID" or "Pandemic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "China" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "India" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.