Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6910f18befd457d28b8bd49c28cc95546b58531765dd594e572bf8e3ff3c70a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 67c | 679.88$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.89 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 64c | 638.54$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.85 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 33c | 579.59$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.75 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked No | 61c | 501.44$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 53c | 500$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.14 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 38c | 423.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 3c | 416$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 3c | 416$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 73c | 373.94$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…7afcbacked No | 55c | 327.94$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed No | 77c | 271.77$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 223$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 46c | 218.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 54c | 188.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 67c | 165.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 31c | 128$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 33c | 127.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 26c | 127$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 74c | 113.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 55cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed No | 24c | 89.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 69c | 80.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…ebcfbacked Yes | 27c | 73.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 68c | 73.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed No | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 67c | 54.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc710…afe5backed Yes | 38c | 52.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 25c | 43.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…b8c2backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 46c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 66c | 22.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "COVID" or "Pandemic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "China" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "India" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oz" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.