Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf840de5388c0eb110fdf67b6f656745645f858cc949453861cc259c7e33104b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 31c | 1,685$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.15 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 66c | 678.11$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.16 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 320.18$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 36c | 307.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 63c | 200.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 55cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 71c | 184$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 34c | 168.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 41c | 164.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 66c | 105.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 78c | 104.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…7afcbacked No | 33c | 88.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…7a9bbacked No | 39c | 76.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe26…6a25backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…7cd2backed No | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 63c | 56.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…e5cbbacked Yes | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…b8c2backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 74c | 49.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 61c | 47.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 36c | 44.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed Yes | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 68c | 40.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…dbc7backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec4…226fbacked No | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4848…1585backed No | 29c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…6ea9backed Yes | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 69c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…3a85backed Yes | 63c | 39.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe765…603cbacked No | 28c | 36.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 42c | 35.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked No | 66c | 24.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…b0c6backed Yes | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 61c | 23.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…9a7dbacked Yes | 65c | 22.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…7907backed Yes | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…d440backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…4786backed Yes | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…5efebacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "COVID" or "Pandemic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "China" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "India" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oz" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.