Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5e6abcc1d442e72f6f990f3023f6bc9dc2da191f8c0969c64d76156a7eac72f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6882…d830backed No | 0c | 12,060$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb6…93f6backed Yes | 74c | 728.36$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed No | 26c | 514.97$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 28c | 415$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 76c | 361.15$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 242.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…b263backed No | 22c | 229.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 29c | 180$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 156.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 71c | 147$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 67c | 115$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…3a85backed No | 18c | 114.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcc…f580backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +291.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 18c | 61.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…f2bcbacked No | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…36b1backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "COVID" or "Pandemic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "China" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "India" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oz" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.