Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf19a43a4622ff3a88bbe8a8c6b37624d6193f77ca29571dff2ddf27625ec4d5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 39c | 1,011$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.89 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 35c | 675.87$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.04 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 39c | 643.36$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.97 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 54c | 616.76$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 35c | 450.25$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.79 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 60c | 430$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.38 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 66c | 249.3$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 61c | 227.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 42c | 220.87$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 60c | 220$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 26c | 173.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…3f78backed Yes | 76c | 170.62$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +151.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1658…5033backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 56c | 142.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 36c | 142$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 32c | 127.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c8…3c9cbacked Yes | 71c | 127.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 63c | 124.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 43c | 115.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb80…2a93backed Yes | 58c | 111.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 66c | 110.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed No | 37c | 107.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 47c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked No | 29c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 38c | 78.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Yes | 63c | 72.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked Yes | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed Yes | 62c | 64.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…047cbacked Yes | 57c | 59.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cc…c816backed No | 33c | 59.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…0394backed Yes | 54c | 56.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 39c | 51.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…6ea9backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 64c | 48.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 55cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…dbc7backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 53c | 37.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 34c | 36.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e00…8dedbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81bd…928bbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 56c | 23.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…a7f9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…d440backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…381bbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed Yes | 71c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…5efebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "COVID" or "Pandemic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "China" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "India" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oz" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.