Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4c78fafd369223dca7cb21fd30c153481a5b06ac2c381e661a523d3834ba755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 32c | 1,114$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…7afcbacked No | 69c | 454$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 67c | 341.98$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.38 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 11c | 303.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 30c | 222.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 68c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 66c | 130$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…615fbacked Yes | 31c | 123.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 94.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x240b…c32abacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef5…6014backed Yes | 42c | 75.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 34c | 56.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 55cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 50.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 55c | 46.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 29c | 44.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…d440backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "COVID" or "Pandemic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "China" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "India" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oz" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.