Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "China" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x138d0e7c67e96f34458646001c55eb053f12356270c5495b04162d5a752a5e04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 25c | 1,598$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.28 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…b263backed No | 14c | 199.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 19c | 195.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11cc…3812backed Yes | 72c | 138.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 136.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x065b…1c53backed Yes | 76c | 105.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 18c | 77.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 13c | 74.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…dbc7backed Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 79c | 59.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 59.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 74c | 51.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…b8c2backed No | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…486cbacked Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 77c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…6209backed Yes | 69c | 21.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 75c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…b9c1backed Yes | 72c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "China" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "COVID" or "Pandemic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?No won
- Will Trump say "India" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oz" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.